Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Truce Prospects Weighed: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds rose while oil fell as traders weighing the viability of US-Iran ceasefire talks sent markets to a series of big swings.
The S&P 500 advanced for a second time this week as US efforts to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news that Iran rejected a truce proposal and maintained its military strikes. Brent dropped to around $101. Treasuries pared this month’s losses. Gold climbed.
President Donald Trump has been pushing for talks with Iran in a bid to halt the fighting. But the initiative has been clouded by uncertainty over the structure of negotiations and how any deal would be arranged, with Tehran signaling little willingness to compromise.
Washington has compiled a plan stipulating the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only, according to people familiar with the matter. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief.
A move by the US to start indirect talks is illogical and not viable at this stage, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing informed sources it didn’t identify.
Tehran has its conditions for a ceasefire, state-owned Press TV added, citing an unnamed senior security official. Iran wants guarantees the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks as well as reparations for damages and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
“Markets are positioning for a conflict resolution, despite lingering strategic ambiguity,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Ultimately, Iran’s response to the US de-escalation pivot will decide whether peak fear is behind us or still ahead.”
“There’s really no way to know at this point what the facts are regarding the state of negotiations, so expect more whipsaw action as things continue to progress,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “While Iran still holds some cards, the chips are stacked heavily against them.”
Geopolitics remained in the driver’s seat, but the bigger story may be the market’s resilience, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“We haven’t seen a major drawdown, and that suggests retail investors are continuing to buy into weakness,” he said. “If tensions begin to ease, institutions may have to move quickly off the sidelines, and that could create a powerful rebound.”
It’s important for investors to not get overly bearish, especially during geopolitical events, which are volatile and can change course at any time, according to Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“Any additional indication of a de-escalation of tensions may spark a risk-on move,” he said. “Stocks have a tendency to recover faster than expected from geopolitical events, even if it doesn’t feel like that in the moment.”
Stanley also notes that markets may remain volatile until earnings season begins in mid-April, as that may help investors refocus back to fundamentals, the economy and artificial intelligence.
Optimism over earnings partly explains the S&P 500’s resilience in the face of fighting in the Middle East. The view is giving bulls reason to remain constructive despite growing geopolitical risks, AI disruption and private-credit stress.
Analysts estimate that S&P 500 companies will grow their profits by 11.9% in the three months through March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That compares to an estimate of 10.9% before the war started.
Corporate Highlights:
Meta Platforms Inc. is cutting several hundred jobs as part of a restructuring effort that’s impacting several teams at the company, including sales, recruiting and the Reality Labs hardware division. Arm Holdings Plc, which made its name licensing technology to semiconductor makers, said it will sell its own chips for the first time — a move forecast to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. Merck & Co. agreed to buy Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $6.7 billion, giving the multinational company access to a promising new leukemia treatment as it faces the patent expiration of its bestselling cancer drug. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The conditions for a squeeze higher are in place: Sentiment is washed out, hedging remains heavy, systematic and long-short funds have already de-risked, and much of March’s negative technical pressure eased after last Friday’s options expiration.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 12 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1571 The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3371 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 159.19 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $70,840.6 Ether rose 0.6% to $2,161.85 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.32% Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.96% Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 4.82% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $90.48 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.9% to $4,562.77 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
