Stocks Get Earnings Boost as Traders Focus on Iran

(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose amid strong corporate earnings as traders waited to see if Iran will join talks that could restore oil flows from the Middle East. The dollar edged higher while Treasuries slipped ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing.

Futures for the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%. Brent wavered around $95 a barrel, with President Donald Trump saying negotiations between the US and Iran could begin as early as Tuesday. UnitedHealth Group Inc. rose more than 7% in early trading on a first-quarter profit beat. General Electric Co. also topped estimates while RTX Corp. raised its profit and sales forecasts.

Retail sales jumped more than expected last month, although the picture was more subdued excluding gasoline and autos. The March increase was led by a 15.5% surge in spending on gas as the Iran war pushed fuel prices to the highest levels since 2022. Excluding gas stations, sales rose 0.6%.

All eyes are on the Middle East after Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire in a war that’s upended global oil markets. Tehran has yet to confirm that it will take part in the Islamabad talks, with Trump threatening strikes on the Islamic Republic’s power infrastructure if diplomacy fails.

“The bar for positive news is low, and developments suggest an inching toward a resolution,” said Laura Cooper, investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen. “That said, ongoing uncertainty and second-order growth effects from prolonged supply disruptions raise questions of complacency.”

Gold dipped 0.8% to below $4,800 an ounce. Apple Inc. fell 0.4% in premarket trading as the iPhone-maker named a successor to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was two basis points higher at 4.27%, while the rate on their two-year counterparts was up four basis points to 3.76%.

In what could be the most contentious confirmation hearing for a Federal Reserve chair nominee in decades, Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee. Investors will be keen to hear how strongly he argues for near-term interest rate cuts amid inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices.

In prepared remarks released on Monday, Warsh said he was “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent” and that “policy independence is earned — and better policy decisions crafted — by steering clear of distractions.” Money markets are pricing less than a 50% chance of a Fed cut by December.

“Warsh represents a potential regime shift in how the Fed communicates,” said Florence Pisani, chief economist at Candriam. “His preference is for a policy rooted in ‘reality’ rather than forecasts. This pivot away from forward guidance may fundamentally change bond market behavior, as investors will no longer have the same predictable roadmap for policy shifts.”

UK gilts underperformed European peers as former top British bureaucrat Olly Robbins said he felt political pressure to clear Peter Mandelson to become US ambassador.

Robbins’ testimony will place Prime Minister Keir Starmer under further scrutiny amid allegations that he misled Parliament when he said “due process” had been followed during Mandelson’s appointment. The pound fell 0.1%.

Corporate Highlights:

General Electric Co.’s first-quarter profit beat Wall Street’s expectations as strong demand for air travel helped the jet-engine manufacturer sidestep disruptions tied to the war in Iran. UnitedHealth Group Inc. reported first quarter profit that blew past Wall Street expectations and boosted its outlook for the year. RTX Corp. raised its profit and sales forecasts for the year in a sign that robust air travel and growing demand for military hardware will provide a boost to the aerospace and defense manufacturer. 3M Co.’s profit beat Wall Street’s expectations to start the year, a sign that the conglomerate’s push to prioritize higher-growth markets and accelerate new product introductions is gaining traction even in volatile economy. Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus later this year, capping a 15-year tenure that turned the company into a $4 trillion business spanning watches, video streaming and financial services. Amazon.com Inc. is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic PBC and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that strengthens ties in in an increasingly competitive artificial intelligence race. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 8:38 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1757 The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3510 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 159.22 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at $76,304.04 Ether fell 1.1% to $2,312.68 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.27% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.98% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.86% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $89.04 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,782.47 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

(Corrects Florence Pisani’s job title to chief economist in ninth paragraph of story published on April 21.)

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