Stocks Rise, Oil Wavers as Trump Weighs End to War: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose while oil swung between gains and losses after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump had signaled he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran.
S&P 500 futures advanced 0.9%, recovering some ground after a selloff that left the benchmark on course for its worst month since 2022. Brent traded below $108 a barrel. Treasuries extended a rebound, with the two-year yield dropping two basis points to 3.81%. The dollar edged lower while gold firmed.
The monthlong war in the Middle East has roiled markets as Iran responded to US and Israeli attacks with a near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for about a fifth of global crude output. The disruption has sent Brent surging nearly 50%, stoking fears of an inflationary spiral with US gasoline prices above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022.
While the report lifted optimism for an imminent end to hostilities, the status of the strait remains unresolved. The WSJ reported that Trump told aides that the US should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade.
In a social media post, Trump said Iran has “essentially” been decimated and that allies should either buy jet fuel from the US or “take it” from the Strait of Hormuz. Still, an Iranian drone strike on a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai emphasized the continuing danger.
“One can’t exclude a swift resolution, but it won’t mean going back exactly to where we were in February,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “Investors are seeing the glass half-full. During the past 15 years or so, buying the dip has been absolutely key.”
Trump has repeatedly swung between saying a deal with Iran is close and warning he’s prepared to escalate the US campaign. On Monday, he threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure and desalination plants if the strait stays shut. He earlier set Tehran an April 6 deadline to reopen the waterway.
“There’s clearly some complacency across the market; there’s no capitulation whatsoever to be found in flows, fundamentals or through a technical analysis,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “Despite the rise today, I would say the market is reluctant to take a strong directional bet.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.8%. In Asia, a slump in chipmakers fueled stock losses after Monday’s rout in US-listed peers. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 4.3%, extending its drop from a February high to 20%. SK Hynix Inc. slumped more than 7%. US chipmakers such a Micron Technology Inc. and Sandisk Corp., meanwhile, underperformed in premarket trading.
The Iran war’s impact on prices is beginning to show in economic data. The euro area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates.
Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. Markets are pricing as many as three quarter-point hikes in the ECB’s deposit rate this year, from its current level of 2%.
“The March rise in inflation is likely the beginning of a sustained pickup,” wrote Bill Diviney, ABN Amro’s senior euro-zone economist. He expects the ECB to raise rates in April and June “in order to pre-empt any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.”
What Bloomberg Strategists Say:
“The improved mood in the rates market can only be temporary. The idea that Brent crude offers some relief simply because it has fallen to levels below $110 a barrel overlooks both the regime shock we have had in prices and the still-dour outlook for supply disruptions.”
— Ven Ram, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here.
Corporate News:
Biogen Inc. has agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $5.6 billion, expanding its treatments in immunology and rare diseases. Whoop Inc., the maker of popular screenless fitness bands, is now valued at $10.1 billion after raising an additional $575 million, a new milestone on its way to an initial public offering. Unilever Plc said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick & Co. are advanced and a final deal could be announced later on Tuesday in a historic move that will transform both companies. Raspberry Pi Holdings Plc, a British maker of small, low-cost computers, rose as much as 27% after reporting a jump in sales and forecasting revenue well above market expectations for 2026. Syngenta Group, the Chinese-owned seed and pesticide giant that’s planning a potential Hong Kong listing, increased profits as it focused on higher-margin businesses. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% as of 7:32 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro was little changed at $1.1474 The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3209 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.58 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $66,597.82 Ether rose 0.6% to $2,035.01 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.32% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.04% Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.92% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $103.96 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,569.88 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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