Subdued US Job Growth Expected in Advance of Fed Meeting

(Bloomberg) — US job growth probably lumbered along in September as the unemployment rate held at an almost four-year high, extending a sluggish period for the labor market.

Economists project 50,000 jobs were added, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey. That would be in line with the average from the past three months. The jobless rate is seen steady at 4.3%.

The report’s release on Friday is at risk if lawmakers are unable to agree on a funding bill by the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday, and the government shuts down. A closure would see federal economic reports suspended.

Barring a shutdown, the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will offer Federal Reserve policymakers an update on whether employers’ appetite for labor is enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising further.

Officials cut interest rates this month for the first time in 2025 on concerns about fragility in the job market, and investors are placing bigger bets on the Fed lowering borrowing costs again at a two-day meeting that concludes on Oct. 29.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Bloomberg Economics expects nonfarm payrolls for September to add a net 54k jobs. The improvement in net hiring likely came from leisure and hospitality, as temperate weather and a positive wealth effect from the summer stock-market rally drove spending on discretionary services.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here

Fed officials Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan and John Williams are among the speakers in the coming week.

Labor demand has gradually diminished as companies search for ways to offset other costs, including higher import duties. A separate government report on Tuesday is projected to show August job openings were at one of the lowest levels since 2021.

Other data in the coming week include the Institute for Supply Management’s September surveys of manufacturers and service providers.

Meanwhile, investors are watching for last-minute moves ahead of the potential federal shutdown, and for the impacts that a government closure would trigger.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US Turning north, the Bank of Canada will release a summary of deliberations that led to its quarter-point rate cut this month, the first since March. It may offer insight into what would prompt another move in October, which is currently viewed by markets as a toss-up. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes both make appearances.

Elsewhere, inflation data in the euro zone and Switzerland, multiple speeches by global central bankers, and a possible rate cut in India will be among the highlights.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

The week features several key central bank events. First off, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady on Tuesday as authorities assess the impact of last month’s quarter-point reduction.

The Reserve Bank of India is seen resuming its easing cycle on Wednesday, lowering the repurchase rate to 5.25% after the Fed cut widened the US-India rate differential.

In Japan, three BOJ policy board members make speeches, with Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday the highlight. He speaks two days after the central bank releases its Tankan survey of business sentiment.

The gauge may show that business sentiment at large manufacturers remained upbeat in the third quarter despite US President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign, in what would be another green light for a potential rate hike on Oct. 30. Given Ueda’s emphasis on improved communications, he’ll likely telegraph his intentions either way when he speaks in Osaka.

In data, China gets two sets of September PMI statistics on Tuesday, with a focus on whether the official manufacturing gauge stays below the boom-or-bust 50 level for a sixth straight month.

The next day brings PMI figures from Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam.

A report on Wednesday may show that South Korea’s export growth stalled in September as efforts to front-load shipments ahead of US tariffs faded, and the impact of the levies hit harder.

South Korean consumer inflation is forecast to rebound a tad in September after a one-month discount on telecom charges ran its course, but the pace of price gains will probably stay around the Bank of Korea’s target, allowing policymakers to trim the base rate as early as their next meeting on Oct. 23.

Other nations reporting CPI include Indonesia, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, while trade figures are due from Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Philippines.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia Europe, Middle East, Africa

Europe has a packed week ahead. Inflation data from Spain on Monday, followed by France, Germany and Italy on Tuesday, will offer investors clues on the outcome for the overall euro zone, due on Wednesday. Forecasters predict a result of 2.2%, the highest in five months.

Economic confidence in the region on Monday and French industrial production on Friday may also draw attention.

European Central Bank officials will be out in force, with more than half of the 26-member Governing Council scheduled to speak — several more than once. Highlights include a conference on Tuesday in Finland featuring President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers, and another with multiple global attendees on Friday in Amsterdam to mark the exit of Dutch Governor Klaas Knot.

The UK’s next few days will be intense. With the governing Labour Party’s annual conference kicking off, investors are focused on speeches by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Monday before her tricky budget later this year, and from Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday, at a time when his premiership is looking shaky.

Economic reports include the quarterly national accounts release on Tuesday and the Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel the following day. Several BOE policymakers are also scheduled to speak.

In Switzerland, where the Swiss National Bank just kept rates on hold, revisions to prior growth data on Monday, a quarterly tally of currency interventions on Tuesday, the purchasing managers index on Wednesday and consumer prices on Thursday are among the highlights. Economists predict inflation to have accelerated this month to 0.3%, the fastest since March.

Sweden’s Riksbank will release minutes on Monday from its Sept. 23 decision to cut the repo rate but also signal no further reductions through 2028.

On Friday, monthly price growth in Turkey is seen to have quickened in September amid what the central bank will likely see as seasonal and temporary factors. The overall inflation rate is expected to ease to 32.5% from 33% in August.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA A number of monetary decisions are scheduled:

The Bank of Israel will likely keep its rate unchanged on Monday at it monitors how expansion of the war in Gaza is exacerbating supply constraints and feeding inflation. The central bank has held its benchmark at 4.5% since January 2024, citing uncertainty from the longest and most expensive conflict in Israel’s history. Also on Monday, a recession in Mozambique will probably convince policymakers to opt for further easing. The central bank has lowered its rate by 700 basis points, to 10.25%, since January 2024. On Thursday, Egypt’s central bank may cut its key rate, which is at 22% after inflation eased in August to 12%, its lowest level in more than three years. Latin America

Chile in the coming week posts seven separate August indicators, including retail sales, unemployment, copper production and the central bank’s GDP-proxy report.

Data for July pointed to brisk domestic demand with market-friendly presidential candidate Jose Antonio Kast leading in polls ahead of November’s election. A mining accident and drag from tariffs may weigh on the August figures.

Reports out of Brazil will likely show that near two-decade high rates have done little to put some slack into a historically tight labor market — the jobless rate hit a record low 5.6% in July.

Mexico also reports August unemployment and formal job creation, while Peru will be post September inflation after it sank to 1.11% in August.

All eyes in Argentina will be on talks with the US to hammer out details of a rescue package for South America’s No. 2 economy.

Scandal and political wobbles had sent Argentine assets into a tailspin that was brought to a halt when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to step in. Much now depends on how President Javier Milei comes out of the Oct. 26 midterm elections.

The highlight in Colombia will be the central bank’s rate decision on Tuesday, followed on Friday by minutes of the meeting.

Consecutive split decisions have seen BanRep hold at 9.25% since a quarter-point cut in April on concern about the glacial pace of disinflation. Analysts surveyed by the central bank don’t see any easing before 2026.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America –With assistance from Laura Dhillon Kane, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans, Brian Fowler, Brendan Scott and Beril Akman.

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