March 8 vote poll: media licence fee initiative could go either way

A view inside an SBC media room: Information Minister Albert Rösti speaks out against the media licence fee reduction initiative. Keystone / Peter Klaunzer

On March 8, Switzerland will vote on four proposals. The Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) survey conducted in mid-January points to a yes to individual taxation and the cash initiative. There is a stalemate on the SBC media licence fee initiative and the climate fund has little chance of success.

It is a special challenge this time around for the gfs.bern pollsters commissioned by the SBC (Swissinfo’s parent company) to conduct the survey. They have to divine how Swiss electorate will vote on the SBC initiative to reduce the media licence fee but are constrained by the need to use SBC’s online platforms to do so.

How do gfs.bern take this factor into account?

“If we ask for opinions on the SBC initiative via the SBC channels, we naturally risk a distortion,” says co-director Lukas Golder. There are methods to correct for this: queries about past voting behavior, for example, against which the current statements are weighted and calibrated.

“The correction in the weighting that we have made takes somewhat greater account of government-critical and rural-conservative circles,” says Golder about the poll results. For example, there are already clear insights in three of the four referendum proposals. However, the situation remains difficult to assess with the SBC initiative.

SBC initiative: No clear trend but questions remain

At first glance, the SBC initiative, that wants to reduce the annual media licence fee to CHF200, looks like it will be rejected at this point in time: 52% are against it.

“But with a sampling error of 3%, it could also be a rejection by 49%,” warns gfs.bern political scientist Martina Mousson.

What is striking here is how synchronously the Swiss living abroad vote with the electorate at home.

In addition, gfs.bern notes that opinion is already consolidated. The SBC initiative will therefore no longer be about persuasion but about which camp will vote in greater numbers. “Distrustful and government-critical people are already highly mobilised on this issue,” Mousson said.

Support for the initiative comes from the environment of the Swiss People’s Party, partly also from circles close to the Radical-Liberals as well as from non-party members. This means that there is a clear left-right polarisation, says Martina Mousson.

It is also striking that most respondents expect a yes to the SBC initiative. This is also a sign that there is still a lot to be done. Gfs.bern therefore speaks of a stalemate.

Mobilisation is the unknown factor

The SBC initiative, together with individual taxation, is considered the lead vote of March 8, i.e. the one that mobilises the most people to vote.

However, the mobilisation reveals another unknown.

“It is increasingly possible to mobilise under our radar. We don’t see 90% of the campaigns anymore,” says Golder. What is sent on WhatsApp, for example, or which mailings end up in the mailboxes, is becoming increasingly difficult to record.

“The mobilisation alone can influence a voting result by more than 10%,” says Golder. For example, when hundreds of thousands spontaneously go to the polls at the last moment.

Individual taxation: No clear opposition

In the case of individual taxation, which is also known as the marriage tax penalty, the starting position is clearer. In all groups from right to left, there is majority support.

Support is even greater among Swiss citizens abroad. Around 74% of them are supportive – 10% more than respondents in Switzerland.

The most convincing argument is that the abolition of the marriage penalty promotes equality. The gfs.bern survey also received broad approval for the statement ‘this makes it more attractive for both partners to work.’

“This explains the current support for this bill even in the ranks of the Swiss People’s Party supporters, says Mousson.

“We still expect resistance in the referendum campaign,” she adds.

Good support for the cash initiative

There is also a lot of support for the ‘cash is freedom initiative‘ in mid-January, with 65% of respondents in favour. “However, the formation of opinion is still not very consolidated, less than with the other proposals,” says Mousson.

In particular, the Federal Council’s counter-proposal to the initiative is obviously still intangible. Approval comes from the right and left. Only the supporters of the Liberal Green Party clearly reject the initiative.

There is clear agreement among the Swiss Abroad, even more so than at home. This pattern is similar in the counter-proposal to the cash initiative.

The argument with the greatest appeal among the respondents is: ‘Cash is a piece of personal freedom’. However, it also became apparent that opinions on the arguments against the initiative have not yet been consolidated.

“There can still be a lot of movement here. For us, the outcome of the vote therefore remains open,” says Mousson.

Climate fund initiative without a chance 

“The Climate fund initiative is in an incredibly difficult position,” says Golder. “If an initiative does not find a majority at the beginning of the referendum campaign, then it has usually already failed.” This is exactly what seems to be case with the climate fund initiative.

“The priority is completely different in today’s situation,” says Golder, explaining the clear trend. “The initiative therefore seems out of time.”

What is striking here is the much milder rejection by the Swiss Abroad surveyed. They even tend to vote yes – albeit not very convincingly.

Among the Left and the Greens, however, support is strong. However, the majority of respondents are aware that Switzerland must set priorities for government spending. “This is the strongest argument against the initiative – and this determined ‘no’ attitude could even be strengthened in the referendum campaign,” says Golder.

The survey conducted by gfs.bern on behalf of the SBC, Swissinfo’s parent company, took place from January 12 to 26. A total of 15,371 people from all language regions were surveyed online, by telephone and online. The sampling error is 2.8%.

Adapted from German using AI/ac