Swiss growth will slow this winter, but a recession is unlikely, says Jan-Egbert Sturm, director of the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) at Federal Institute ETH Zurich.
“The foreseeable recession in Germany and also in other large European countries like France, Italy and Spain will indeed dampen our growth,” he said in an interview with the Sonntagszeitung newspaper published on Sunday. “We will probably have pretty weak growth over the winter half-year. But assuming energy shortages in the coming winter months are not disastrous, I rule out a recession in Switzerland.”
Asked about the current phase that the world is facing, he said it was unique. “Pandemic, Ukraine war, energy crisis, interest rate turnaround, fears of recession, very high inflation in many countries — these are unique developments,” he said. “As an economic researcher, this is very exciting and shows that the world is no longer the way it used to be. But of course, I would also prefer easier times.”
Despite high inflation elsewhere, he expects it to remain between 3 and 3.5% in Switzerland until spring, he told the paper. The inflation rate should then fall, he says, “unless new unexpected problems arise”.
This is despite current wage demands in Switzerland, where labour unions are demanding pay rises of 4-5% and employers say this is not possible because of the expected downturn. Sturm told the paper that he understands the arguments on both sides, but that a compromise must be found. “On the one hand, inflation is unexpectedly high, and some compensation for this is necessary,” he said. “On the other hand, we have to be careful not to create a wage-price spiral. I am optimistic that – as is usual in Switzerland – a happy medium will be found.”
Popular Stories
More
Demographics
Flat-hunting in Switzerland’s cheapest and most expensive municipalities
Train vs plane: would you take a direct train between London and Geneva?
Eurostar is planning to run direct trains from Britain to Germany and Switzerland from the early 2030s. Would you favour the train over the plane? If not, why not?
Switzerland presents special toilet for cows to cut emissions
This content was published on
A toilet specially designed for cows, aimed at reducing ammonia emissions per animal by 15%, was presented at a farm in Hellbühl, canton Lucerne, on Wednesday.
Swiss petition against US F-35 fighter jets gathers 42,000 signatures
This content was published on
A petition by the "Stop-F35 Alliance" urging the Swiss government to immediately halt the purchase of new US fighter jets has gathered 42,500 signatures.
Swiss House of Representatives backs online Schengen visa system
This content was published on
In future, Schengen visa applications should be made via a European Union online platform. On Tuesday, Switzerland's House of Representatives adopted a revision of Swiss legislation on this issue.
UBS study: Switzerland is still the richest country in the world
This content was published on
Average per-capita wealth in Switzerland rose last year to $687,000 (CHF561,000), the UBS Global Wealth Report said on Wednesday.
UBS and Pictet report data leak after cyber attack on provider Chain IQ
This content was published on
Swiss banks UBS and Pictet on Wednesday confirmed they had suffered a data leak due to a cyber attack on their subcontractor Chain IQ in Switzerland.
Iran will respond firmly if US gets directly involved in Israeli strikes, says UN ambassador
This content was published on
Iran says it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva said on Wednesday.
Swiss politicians concerned by cut to Lausanne-Paris TGV services
This content was published on
The Vaud cantonal parliament wants to maintain six direct daily TGV high-speed train services between Lausanne and Paris.
This content was published on
Switzerland and Norway have signed a bilateral agreement for the future storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the North Sea.
Switzerland must better protect whistleblowers, says OECD
This content was published on
Switzerland must step up its anti-corruption efforts and provide better protection for whistleblowers while increasing fines for guilty firms, an OECD anti-bribery group says.
Energy worries likely to slow Swiss growth, say experts
This content was published on
Swiss economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 have been revised downwards, amid uncertainty over energy supply and inflation.
You can find an overview of ongoing debates with our journalists here . Please join us!
If you want to start a conversation about a topic raised in this article or want to report factual errors, email us at english@swissinfo.ch.