S&P 500 Futures Rise, Dollar Dips on Iran Truce: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — US equity-index futures climbed and the dollar edged lower after President Donald Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran, spurring cautious optimism among investors.

Contracts for the S&P 500 Index gained 0.5% and those for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 0.7% on hopes that easing hostilities will lower oil prices and support economic growth. The underlying gauges declined for a second consecutive day Tuesday amid concerns about US-Iran talks.

Helping sentiment, the dollar — the haven of choice during the conflict — weakened amid hopes of de-escalation. Global crude benchmark Brent fluctuated around $98 a barrel. Stocks in Asia edged lower as investors grappled with how long the Middle East conflict may continue. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6%, while technology shares outperformed.

Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, blaming the collapse of negotiations on what he called a “seriously fractured” leadership structure in Tehran. The US would hold off on fresh attacks but maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains heavily disrupted.

While global equities have recouped war-driven losses and crude oil has pared risk premiums, markets remain caught between cautious optimism and renewed concern over the Middle East. One bright spot has been the revival of the artificial intelligence trade, lifting chipmakers and pushing equity benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan to new highs.

“The initial shock from the war is probably already over, so we are entering this kind of back-and-forth uncertainty period,” Vivian Lin Thurston, a fund manager at William Blair, said on Bloomberg TV. “So if you believe that the fundamentals remain supportive, I think markets will look through the near-term uncertainties and the noise related to the war.”

Vice President JD Vance had been due to travel to Pakistan to resume talks with Iran, but representatives from Tehran refused to attend, citing what they said were unreasonable US demands. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said there is currently no prospect of Iran participating in negotiations.

Trump’s announcement struck a markedly different tone from his earlier comments. In a telephone interview Monday, Trump said it was “highly unlikely that I’d extend” the cessation of hostilities if no deal was reached.

“A ceasefire should be supportive for risk assets in general, but for Asia, the story could be different,” Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “Many economies here are heavily reliant on energy imports, so a prolonged standoff actually hurts more — especially compared to the US, which is much more energy self-sufficient.”

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating sustained shortages of fuels, fertilizers and other key materials. Futures markets are pricing for these shortfalls to rapidly disappear, meaning that the V-shaped rebounds equities experienced as fighting in the Middle East subsided may have gone too far, too fast.”

— Garfield Reynolds, Markets Live team leader. For more on the analysis, click here.

In other corners of the market, gold rose 0.8% to about $4,760 an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $78.15 an ounce. Earlier, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 0.5%, matching its longest streak of gains on record.

Treasuries held their losses from the US session, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year little changed at 4.29%. Bonds of similar maturities in Japan and Australia also declined.

Shares of major Chinese tech firms including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com fell in Hong Kong on concerns over their near-term profitability due to regulatory pressure and a lack of clear catalysts to support their leadership in the nation’s AI race.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the central bank, said the Federal Reserve needs a new framework for dealing with persistent inflation, without offering specifics. He also said the US president has not asked him to commit to making certain rate decisions.

“The president nominated me for the position, and I’ll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve,” Warsh added.

Corporate News:

Deutsche Telekom AG is considering a full combination with its American arm T-Mobile US Inc., a move that would create a multinational telecom group and rank as the largest-ever public M&A deal, people with knowledge of the matter said. China’s “national team” has stepped back from its dominant role in the country’s biggest stock ETFs, pointing to efforts to rein in an overheated rally earlier this year. United Airlines Holdings Inc. slashed its full-year profit forecast as higher fuel prices caused by war in the Middle East batter global carriers. SpaceX said it has an agreement to either acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for its work together. Deutsche Lufthansa AG will scrub 20,000 uneconomic short-haul flights from its European summer schedule to save on jet fuel, which has doubled in price since the start of the Iran war. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 12:51 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix fell 0.6% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.9% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro was little changed at $1.1739 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.38 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8248 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $77,590.73 Ether rose 2.2% to $2,365.39 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.29% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.400% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.95% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $89.20 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,759.69 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Ruth Carson, Winnie Hsu, David Savage and Abhishek Vishnoi.

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