Boom in one-person Swiss households forecast by 2055

FSO: Boom in one-person households by 2055 Keystone-SDA

In Switzerland, the proportion of single-person households is expected to increase to about 40% in the next 30 years.

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At the same time, according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the proportion of households with at least three people will fall to 27%. These developments are due to increasing life expectancy and falling birth rates.

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Considering the most likely scenario, households with two individuals in 2055 would thus account for exactly one third of the total, figures published today by Neuchâtel officials show.

Overall, over the next three decades the total number of households will rise from the current 4.1 million to 4.9 million (with low and high scenarios of 4.3 and 5.4 million).

This trend correlates with figures published by the FSO itself in mid-April: according to the most likely scenario, the Confederation will grow from 9 million inhabitants at the end of last year to around 10.5 million in 2055, of which 2.7 million will be aged 65 or over. The driver of population growth will be immigration, which will depend on how the country’s socio-economic and political environment develops.

However, the FSO’s forecast did not take into account the scenario of an acceptance in the vote of the federal popular initiative ‘No to a 10 million Switzerland! (Sustainability Initiative)’ presented by the Swiss People’s Party in April 2024.

According to the most likely forecast, between 2025 and 2055, the number of households will increase by between 25% and 35% in the cantons of Lucerne, St. Gallen, Vaud and Valais, while in the cantons of Appenzell Ausserrhoden, Neuchâtel, Schaffhausen and Glarus, growth will be lower, at less than 5%. In Ticino and Graubünden, the figure is between 5% and 10%.

Shrinking households

The smallest households will register the strongest growth. Neuchâtel specialists predict a 26% increase in those with one person and a 19% increase in those with two. The trend towards ever smaller households is a peculiarity of the scenario published today, writes the FSO. The shrinking of households is a phenomenon that has been particularly marked in recent years and is likely to continue in the near future.

For Switzerland as a whole, the average number of people per household will fall from 2.18 in 2025 to 2.10 in 2055. The average household size will decrease in all cantons. The largest declines will occur in Obwalden, Fribourg and Valais, and the smallest in Basel-City, Geneva and Zurich. In thirty years’ time, Ticino, Basel-City, Graubünden and Neuchâtel will have an average of fewer than two people per household. Geneva and Appenzell Inner Rhodes, on the other hand, will have the highest average size: 2.28 for the former and 2.25 for the latter.

The reasons for this are increasing longevity and falling birth rates. Widows and widowers often live alone in old age. Among young adults, the decline in fertility leads to an increase in small households. The average number of children per woman in Switzerland fell to 1.29, the lowest level ever recorded since surveys began in 1876, the office said on Monday.

Translated from Italian by DeepL/mga

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