Employment prospects brighten slightly in Switzerland

The indicator points to a slight improvement in employment prospects for the first time in three years, said the KOF institute. Keystone-SDA

In Switzerland, the outlook for employment has improved slightly. The indicator from the KOF economic research centre at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich shows job gains in the construction industry and the services sector.

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The employment indicator stood at 0.7 points in the fourth quarter, the KOF institute said on Monday. In the third quarter of 2025, it was still at -0.6 (revised from +0.3). The increase of 1.3 points was achieved despite the introduction of US tariffs of 39% on Swiss goods.

After a prolonged phase of declining values, the indicator points to a slight improvement in employment prospects for the first time in three years, said the KOF. Overall, however, the recovery in the labour market remains modest and is due in particular to the construction industry and the service sector.

Unusually high revision of previous quarter’s figure

According to the KOF, the revision of the value from the previous quarter to this extent (-0.9 points) is unusual. This is due to the fact that the later results from the KOF economic surveys in August and September were weaker than those from July. The import duties imposed by the United States at the beginning of August are likely to be responsible for this, according to the KOF. The indicator value for the third quarter originally only included data from July.

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The increase in the indicator in October compared to the third quarter suggests that the downward momentum has not intensified further despite the US tariffs, said KOF, and that the outlook has even brightened slightly.

The analyses are based on the responses of around 4,500 companies that were surveyed by the KOF in October 2025 on the current level of employment and the outlook.

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On balance, the assessment of the current employment level is now slightly positive at +0.6 points, compared to -0.4 points in the third quarter. Expectations for the coming months have also improved, from -0.8 points in the previous quarter to +0.8 points. This means that the proportion of companies expecting to increase jobs is again slightly higher than that of companies planning to cut jobs.

No improvement in sight for manufacturing sector

The picture remains mixed when comparing sectors. The outlook in the manufacturing sector, or traditional industry, remains clearly negative, even though it has recently improved slightly. The outlook in the retail sector also remains negative. The mood in wholesale is clearly gloomier than in retail.

Employment prospects are best in the construction industry and services.

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Translated from German with DeepL/gw

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