Swiss authorities raise 2026 economic growth forecast

Bern agreed with Washington in November on a preliminary deal to lower U.S. tariffs to 15% from 39%. Keystone-SDA

Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has slightly raised its 2026 economic growth forecast following the recent agreement to lower US import tariffs on Swiss products.

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Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 1.4% this year and 1.1% in 2026, according to official data published on Monday. In the last assessment, which dates back two months, the corresponding figures were +1.3% (for 2025) and +0.9% (for 2026). An initial estimate for 2027 is +1.7%.

The numbers shown have been corrected to taken into account sports events. These have a significant impact as Switzerland is home to many large international federations that collect billions of francs from the broadcasting rights to their tournaments. Based on gross indicators, GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.4% next year and 1.4% in the following twelve months.

According to SECO, following the recent lowering of US tariffs, the prospects for the sectors and companies directly affected have improved and planning security has been strengthened. Bern agreed with Washington in November on a preliminary deal to lower US tariffs to 15% from 39%. But there remains great uncertainty globally with regard to trade and economic policy. The Swiss franc also continues to remain at high levels.

Over the next 12 months, foreign trade is expected to provide a positive, albeit moderate, impulse to growth, says SECO. Goods exports in the coming quarters are expected to be higher than forecast last October. It can also be assumed that domestic demand will make a decisive contribution to supporting the economy. Investment is also expected to be slightly higher, due to higher capacity utilisation.

Low inflation rates will also support real incomes: in both 2025 and 2026 inflation is expected to average 0.2% per year (October forecast: 0.2% this year, 0.5% next year). This should ensure a solid trend in private consumption expenditure. The unemployment rate should rise to 3.1% in 2026.

However, there are many potential problems, says SECO. In particular, a deterioration in the international environment cannot be ruled out. It says there is a high risk of corrections on financial markets and the dangers associated with global debt, in particular that of states, have increased further.

There are also balance sheet risks for financial institutions, risks on the real estate markets and geopolitical risks relating to armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. In this context, if the situation worsened, there would be further upward pressure on the Swiss franc.

Adapted from French by AI/sb

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