Panel to calculate climate change impact
A government panel will release a key report on Wednesday outlining the implications of climate change for the Swiss economy, society and environment.
The Advisory Body on Climate Change (OcCC) is expected to detail the effects rising temperatures will have on ecology, agriculture, health, tourism, water supply and infrastructure by 2050.
The panel experts will base their findings on the climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Last month, the IPCC released the first volume of its latest report which confirmed a rise in global temperatures (“very likely caused by human activities”) of 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Christoph Ritz, an OcCC member, told swissinfo Wednesday’s report would for the first time highlight the impact a changing climate will have on various fields.
That is why, he said, the forecasts of hydrologists, agronomists and insurance experts are being presented and not those of climate scientists.
The OcCC will make recommendations on what Switzerland should do to adapt to the changing conditions.
The document is also expected to conclude that rising temperatures, a greater frequency of storms and larger fluctuations in precipitation will have a significant impact on domestic power generation, insurance claims and the spread of invasive plant and animal species.
The NZZ am Sonntag newspaper revealed a few of the findings at the end of February.
The output of mountain hydroelectricity plants (60 per cent of total domestic power generation) is expected to decrease by around seven per cent since they will have to rely more on rainwater and less on melted snow.
Less water
And nuclear power plants (38 per cent of total domestic power generation) may have to reduce output by as much as 25 per cent since there will be less water in Swiss rivers during hotter, drier summers to cool the reactors.
“The glaciers feed rivers and lakes with melt water and if the glaciers disappear you won’t have melt water in summer,” glaciologist Martin Hoelzle explained to swissinfo.
“If there is a decrease in precipitation as predicted, it will become drier, so this will have a significant impact, particularly in Swiss regions like the Rhone valley. This will effect the water industry, and of course power plants and [irrigation for] agriculture too.”
The OcCC report comes amidst a hot debate currently raging over Switzerland’s energy future.
Set off by predictions of a potential shortage by 2020, the government put forward a plan earlier this year to lift a moratorium on nuclear energy, build gas-fired power plants, invest more in renewable energies and promote energy efficiency.
Fuel to fire
The OcCC report could add fuel to the fire with a prediction, according to the NZZ, that offices and work places will consume three times as much electricity as they do now for air conditioning.
And an increase in the frequency of heatwaves will take its toll on the elderly. A study published in the Swiss Medical Weekly said mortality rates increased by seven per cent during the unusually hot summer of 2003, mostly affecting older people.
Experts will also take a look at what climate change will mean for other aspects of Switzerland’s urban environment, and its tourist industry. The OECD said late last year that many ski resorts would disappear as winters become warmer.
The world’s largest reinsurance company, Swiss Re, which is also represented on the OcCC panel, is expected to forecast a sharp rise in insurance premiums to cover claims resulting from a greater frequency of extreme weather events such as storms and floods.
swissinfo, Dale Bechtel
The Advisory Body on Climate Change (OcCC) was appointed in 1996. Its role is to formulate recommendations on questions regarding climate and global change for politicians and the Swiss government.
It issued its last report in 2002.
The findings and recommendations contained in its current report (“Switzerland in 2050” released on March 14, 2007) are based on the following climate scenarios:
A temperature rise of 1.8°C in winter and 2.7°C in summer.
An increase of precipitation in winter by 8% (11% in southern Switzerland) and decrease in summer by 17% (19% in southern Switzerland).
In compliance with the JTI standards
More: SWI swissinfo.ch certified by the Journalism Trust Initiative
You can find an overview of ongoing debates with our journalists here . Please join us!
If you want to start a conversation about a topic raised in this article or want to report factual errors, email us at english@swissinfo.ch.