Asian Stocks Erase Losses, Dollar and Oil Decline: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks erased earlier declines on the final trading day of a volatile week, even as the Middle East conflict showed little sign of easing. Gold and silver rose.
Some relief for regional shares came in the form of a weaker dollar and a drop in crude prices as the US weighed a range of options to address the spike in energy costs amid the war in Iran. Gains in Chinese technology shares also helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retrace an earlier decline of as much as 1.2%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%.
Equity-index futures for the US and Europe also rose, indicating some improvement of sentiment in stock markets.
Even so, Asia’s benchmark stock index has dropped 6.4% since the Iran war began, with MSCI’s regional gauge set for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is poised for its best week since November 2024. Crude oil headed for the biggest weekly surge since 2022.
Sharp swings across asset classes have unsettled traders struggling to price risk as headlines from the US-Israeli offensive against Iran ricochet through markets. Investors fear renewed inflation if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz curb oil flows, while equity valuations remain a concern after a rally fueled by bets on artificial intelligence.
“What matters now is whether the war will last days, weeks, or longer,” said Marco Oviedo, senior strategist at XP Investimentos. The possibility that the conflict doesn’t last long “remains the base case, and that the US is winning the battle. But Iran’s refusal to back down is keeping things tense,” he said.
Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes across the Gulf on Thursday evening, with attacks reported in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that his country hadn’t asked for a ceasefire and had no intention of negotiating.
The US also remained defiant. Trump told Axios he should be involved in selecting Iran’s next leader, the outlet reported, citing an interview with the president.
Meanwhile, the US issued a general license to allow for some Russian oil sales to India, giving the Asian nation more options to purchase fuel as the war on Iran leads to a spike in global prices.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The Iran war-induced disruptions will boost inflation not only via the direct impact on oil costs but also food prices which could surge due to the hit to fertilizers and the damage to global trade more generally. These dynamics will leave emerging-market assets especially vulnerable, while putting global bonds at risk.”
— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader. For full analysis, click here.
Higher oil prices raised the risk of another breakdown in stock-bond correlations, but bonds can still diversify equity risk, according to Morgan Stanley strategists including Serena Tang.
“If a sustained oil shock could push growth lower and inflation higher, we may see a repeat of the 2021–2023 environment when stocks and bonds sold off together,” they said.
Brent crude fell 1.1% on Friday to $84.47 a barrel. Gold rose 1% to $5,132 an ounce, while silver jumped more than 2.5%.
Attention later will shift to the US payrolls report. Before that, data showed jobless claims are settling near some of the lowest levels in the last year amid a low-firing environment.
The employment report due Friday is expected to show hiring moderated last month after a strong reading in January, and unemployment held steady.
“The stronger the better given the increase in inflation expectations due to energy prices,” the JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk led by Andrew Tyler said. “A weaker number will increase rate cut expectations, but the risk is stagflation in the near term.”
Corporate Highlights:
Oracle Corp. is planning to ax thousands of jobs among its moves to handle a cash crunch from a massive AI data center expansion effort. Marvell Technology shares are up 10% in extended trading after the chipmaker’s first-quarter outlook was stronger than expected. Nvidia Corp. shares managed a minor gain despite a gauge of semiconductor shares dropping 1.2% as the US considered requiring permits for artificial-intelligence chip sales. Broadcom Inc. Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan said the company expects its AI chip sales to top $100 billion next year. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. CEO Greg Abel said he will use all of his take-home pay to acquire the conglomerate’s stock for as long as he’s in the role. Denso Corp. shares fell in Tokyo trading Friday after Nikkei reported the company has made a takeover approach to Rohm Co. valuing the chipmaker at around ¥1.3 trillion ($8.3 billion). Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 12:57 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix was little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.8% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.1620 The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.50 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 6.9040 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $71,058.43 Ether was little changed at $2,081.49 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.160% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.84% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $80.03 a barrel Spot gold rose 1% to $5,131.62 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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