Prisoner swaps, weapons exports, and Swiss neutrality

No sooner does one long standing crisis show faint signs of calming, than another erupts. As I write this, the UN is struggling to bring aid into Sudan, and the bitter fighting shows little sign of calming down. The rival military factions simply do not want to give up power, and as ever, civilians are paying a terrible price.

Millions of people in Yemen know all too well what that means – for the last eight years they too have been at the mercy of a violent power struggle, fuelled by support from Saudi Arabia for Yemen’s government forces, and from Iran for the rebel Houthis.

The conflict created what the UN described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with millions close to famine, millions displaced, and such destruction of basics like water and electricity supplies, as well as health facilities, that a cholera outbreak roared through the country virtually unchecked.

But now, perhaps, things may be ever so slightly improving. Although a ceasefire negotiated last year was termed temporary, really intense fighting has not restarted. Saudi Arabia and Iran have restored diplomatic ties, and there are rumours a more permanent truce in Yemen may be under discussion.

Confidence building measures

A key confidence building measure took place last month, when the International Committee of the Red Cross facilitated a prisoner swap of almost 900 detainees, some of whom had been held for years by either Houthi rebels or government forces.

It sounds fairly straightforward: have a chat with the warring parties, suggest they might like to release some prisoners in exchange for getting some of their own back, and off you go. The reality is far more complicated, as the ICRC’s Fabrizio Carboni tells me in this week’s Inside Geneva podcast.

When, at a press conference in Geneva he, together with the UN special envoy for Yemen, announced that an agreement for the exchange had been reached, I was there, and heard Carboni, looking very cheerful, say “I have no reason to believe it won’t be a success.” An interestingly cautious choice of words, which contrasted somewhat with the big smile.

That’s because, as he told me “behind the smiling Fabrizio there is also the sweating Fabrizio.” In the painstaking process to ensure all the almost 900 prisoners are released and returned safely to their families, much can go wrong.

“Before you can announce something like this, there is a lot of back and forth. It’s an emotional roller coaster, this kind of behind the scenes negotiation,” he told Inside Geneva.

And then, after the long and complex negotiations, the logistical challenges begin. The ICRC has to charter planes that are willing to fly into conflict zones, like Sana’a, or Marib. Red Cross delegates have to visit every single detainee due for release, and ensure not just that they are well enough to travel, but that they actually want to.

Saying no — not yes

The day the exchange began was particularly tense; there had been a few delays related to getting those planes, and, apparently, by the need to ensure that detainees from both sides took off at the same time.

But when those first planes were airborne, it was, Carboni admitted, a moment of enormous satisfaction. “What people don’t realise is how much the life of the humanitarian is about frustration,” he said. “It’s about saying no more often than yes.”

And, he added “we don’t often have good news from Yemen.” So does the ICRC think the prisoner swap is a sign of better, more peaceful times ahead? There, Carboni is hesitant. “It’s a sign of hope,” he told Inside Geneva. “But it’s not enough. Way more is expected from the Yemeni people. I won’t say they are tired {of the conflict}. They are beyond tired.”

Neutrality and weapons exports

Carboni’s behind the scenes description of that prisoner swap is fascinating, so I do hope you’ll take the time to listen to this week’s Inside Geneva. We’ve also got an in-depth interview with arms control expert Professor Keith Krause of Geneva’s Graduate Institute, who provides great analysis of neutral Switzerland’s tricky position on weapons exports.

As some readers may know, Swiss law says weapons must not be exported into conflict zones. Even indirect exports, by peaceful countries which have already purchased Swiss armaments but now want to sell or donate them, are prohibited if the new destination is at war. The law is supported by most Swiss, who, naturally enough, don’t think their armaments industry, originally designed to supply Switzerland’s militia army, should be fuelling war.

That point of view, however, did not foresee Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the general consensus that Kyiv must be helped to defend itself. “German officials have expressed their dismay that Switzerland would not allow re-export of munitions that Germany had bought several years ago, so Switzerland finds itself in a very delicate position,” Keith Krause told Inside Geneva.

The debate has led to a national soul searching about what Swiss neutrality really means. As analyst Daniel Warner points out on Inside Geneva, the future of Switzerland as country where tricky diplomacy can take place may be in doubt. “A Russian diplomat said that Switzerland is no longer considered a neutral country. When you think of the summits: Reagan-Gorbachev, Biden-Putin, it’s difficult to imagine in the future Geneva or Switzerland will be a centre for negotiations.”

So, as Switzerland assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council (a situation which would have been unimaginable just 25 years ago, when the debate was still ongoing about whether to join the UN at all), there is lots to get your teeth into on Inside Geneva.

And if any listeners were hoping for our take on Sudan, tune in next time, where we hope to bring you the indepth humanitarian perspective.