Having children is a luxury in Switzerland. Is the US next?

In Manhattan, children have long since become a status symbol. But in other parts of the US, too, purchasing power plays a part in determining birth rates – a scenario similar to that in expensive Switzerland. AFP

Few Western countries have seen birth rates fall as sharply as Switzerland. Apart from changing social values, the high cost of living is fuelling couples’ decision not to have children. The US is now showing some strikingly similar trends.

If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. The belief that you should never let setbacks get you down is deeply rooted in America’ self-image. Until recently, this resilience was reflected in the country’s demographics. In the past, birth rates in the US fell during times of crisis but reliably recovered afterwards.

This changed in 2007. Since the financial crisis, the number of children per woman has steadily declined in the US. In less than 20 years, the fertility rate dropped from 2.1 to 1.6 children per woman, a historic low.

This has not gone unnoticed by the Trump administration. At a press conference in May, Dr Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and a former television physician, coined a new term by declaring the US “under-babied”.

For a long time, however, the US fared reasonably well compared with the OECD average. In the 2000s, the birth rate stood at 2.1 children per woman which is necessary to keep a population stable. But now, the country is facing the same dilemma as Switzerland which, at 1.28 children per woman, ranks in the bottom third of OECD countries.

The US and Switzerland have several significant things in common: structural similarities, such as federalism, and historical ones, such as a strong emphasis on individual freedom vis-à-vis the state. Economically, the two countries are more similar than one might expect given their different geopolitical standing. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Switzerland ranks fourth in the world for per capita income while the US ranks eighth. Taking purchasing power into account, both countries fare worse with Switzerland ranking eighth and the US eleventh – a factor that also affects the number of children people have. After all, less purchasing power means cutting back where you can, including having children.

Purchasing power: two countries, one problem

In a recently published ranking of the world’s most expensive places, Swiss cities took the top six spots, with Zurich in first place. New York City followed in seventh, San Francisco in tenth and Seattle in twelfth. Other US cities such as Washington, San Jose, Boston and Charleston also featured among the 20 most expensive.

In both countries, average wage earners feel immense pressure on their wallets. In Switzerland, the birth rate dropped again due to high living costs after having stabilised for a while.

Unlike in most Western industrialised countries, this latest plunge was not simply the result of a growing number of people choosing not to have children in the first place. Second and third births also play a key role: Swiss women tend not to have a third child. Experts link this development directly to their living conditions. For many women, housing and childcare costs combined with juggling family and work are simply no longer manageable with three children. It’s hardly surprising, given that the direct and indirect costs of raising a child in Switzerland are estimated at one million Swiss francs.External link

The same trend can be observed in the US, at least in the big cities. Ten years ago, having a third child was already considered the ultimate status symbol in Manhattan. Since 2007, third births have also seen the sharpest decline in the US.

Unlike in Switzerland, the so-called funnel effect has a greater impact in the US. In other words, when fewer women have a first child, fewer have a second or third. Until now, the actual willingness to have a third child after a second – measured by what is known as the parity progression ratio – has remained relatively strong in the US. This may be partly because living costs vary more widely across the country. But the current cost-of-living crisis could now see the US follow the same pattern as Switzerland..

As Lyman Stone, a demographer at the conservative think tank Institute for Family Studies, points out, the main driver of the decline in US birth rates is the decision not to have a first child. Switzerland shows a different trend: the willingness to have a first child has remained relatively stable as the comparison of the two countries in the graph shows.

Reluctance to have children: the US falls below Switzerland

Childless couples can be split into two groups: those who want children but cannot have them, and those who do not want children in the first place. US policy targets the first group: US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Junior recently complained about the decline in average sperm counts.

Indeed, biological infertility is on the rise in the US, but people who choose not to have children are by far the bigger demographic factor. An analysis by the Pew Research Center, an independent think tank in Washington, shows the scale of this phenomenon. The share of women aged 20 to 30 who do not want children rose from 7% in 2002 to 23% in 2023. Among women aged 20 to 24, this figure is even higher at 34%. Men score similarly high numbers.

The share of people who choose not to have children has also risen sharply in Switzerland over the last few years. In 2013, only 6% said they did not want to have children; by 2023, that figure had risen to 17%. Surveys including those under 20 put the figure as high as 23%. These numbers are still lower than in the US, where the global trend towards childlessness is particularly pronounced.

There are many reasons for this development. Demographers attribute this trend to a general shift in social values, rising costs of living, limited career prospects for parents, particularly the so-called motherhood penalty, as well as factors like the loneliness crisis and the influence of social media on lifestyle and living standards.

Another factor is that in the US, just as in Switzerland, many people have fewer children than they had originally wished for. According to a reportExternal link by the Institute for Family Studies, the so-called fertility gap is widening. While the fertility rate in the US has dropped below 1.6, most women still expect to have two children. The women surveyed said they would ideally like to have an average of 2.4 children.

Princeton economist Ilyana Kuziemko showed in a studyExternal link that women, particularly college graduates, systemically underestimate the difficulties of balancing family and career before having their first child.

Mothers with a university degree also tend to be older when they have their first child which means they have less time to have more children. A separation or personal crisis such as losing a job can therefore thwart their original plans to have children.

The age factor: America’s last advantage

One of the most important factors for fertility is the age at which women have their first child, which is rising in the US as it is across the Western world. However, compared to other countries the average age in the US is still relatively low. This is where the biggest difference with Switzerland can be observed: Swiss women have their first child at an average age of 31.3 years (2023) putting Switzerland among the countries with the oldest first-time mothers in the world.

According to a reportExternal link by the US health agency CDC, in 2023, mothers in the US were on average 27.5 years old when they had their first child.

At 24.8 years, the average age of mothers at first birth in rural areas is significantly lower than in large metropolitan counties where it stands at 28.5. As in Switzerland and other Western countries, the age gap is also evident between college graduates and mothers without tertiary education.

Regional value systems and religious organisations, particularly in the conservative Protestant Bible Belt, help explain why mothers in the US are younger on average. Their influence is also evident in the relatively stable number of large families with four or more children.

On the other hand, teen birth rates are declining. Since peaking in the early 1990s, the number of teenage births in the US has dropped by 80%.External link

Thanks to the relatively young age of mothers, the US have a buffer that can partly offset the effects of the current cost-of-living crisis. For couples postponing having children because of the crisis, there is still some time, at least on average.

If the US fails to tackle the cost-of-living crisis soon, existing trends could intensify, particularly the growing reluctance to have second or third children, as has happened in Switzerland. With huge numbers of young women and men already saying “no” to having children, the US could face the same dilemma as Switzerland: falling below 1.4 children per woman. Demographers consider this a critical threshold for a society.

Adapted from German by Billi Bierling/ds