WTO forecasts a contraction in trade of at least 0.2% in 2025
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WTO forecasts a contraction in trade of at least 0.2% in 2025
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is forecasting a contraction in global trade of 0.2% in 2025. If the US applies reciprocal customs duties and general uncertainty increases, the drop could reach 1.5%, it said on Wednesday in Geneva.
In 2026, it is expected to rise by a further 2.5%. The analysis for this year is similar to that made on the evening of US President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs, which have since been suspended for 90 days. At the time, the WTO was predicting a 1% fall in merchandise trade this year. This figure has now been reduced to 0.8%.
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The WTO is expecting an 81% drop in the volume of trade between the United States and China. More broadly, global uncertainty could cause merchandise trade to fall by a further 0.7 points.
Prior to these tensions, the WTO was expecting growth of around 3%. All regions are feeling the impact of the current situation, according to the organisation.
Adapted from French by DeepL/ac
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