S&P 500 Closes Near Record on Iran Peace Push: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index closing within sight of a fresh record as optimism on the possibility of further peace talks between the US and Iran pushed down oil prices.
The benchmark index finished 1.2% higher a day after erasing its war-driven losses, extending a rebound that has brought it to the brink of its late-January peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 1.8% for a 10th straight day of gains — its longest such streak since 2021.
The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, while a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz worsens a global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic prospects. The objective is to hold more discussions before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter.
“It’s not about whether there is progress in the peace talks, it’s about whether we can reasonably hope that there might be progress in the peace talks,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. “Vibes are more powerful than reality.”
Brent fell 4% toward $95 a barrel, as the International Energy Agency estimatied that the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since the 2020 pandemic. The dollar marked a seventh straight day of losses, while Treasuries strengthened.
Traders are also focused on first-quarter earnings at a time when the war in the Middle East is weighing on the outlook for the economy. JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares slipped despite a record quarterly trading revenue haul. Citigroup Inc. rose after reporting its highest quarterly return in five years on tangible common equity.
BlackRock Inc. took in a net $130 billion of client cash in the first quarter, with investor money continuing to pour in despite volatility in the public and private markets and protracted uncertainty over the war in Iran. Shares rose 3%.
“Profits drive the cycle and the global profit expectations have not been dented,” said Tom Fahey, co-director of macro strategies at Loomis Sayles, during a panel on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, US wholesale prices rose by less than expected in March, despite a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The producer price index rose 0.5%, with an underlying gauge that excludes food and energy up just 0.1%. Economists projected a 1.1% for the PPI from a month earlier.
The data follow figures last week that showed US consumer prices surged in March because of skyrocketing gasoline prices, even as underlying inflation came in below estimates.
“Companies continue to show remarkable resilience in the face supply chain, tariff, and now energy challenges,” said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs. “This should be reassuring for investors.”
At the same time, US energy stocks are poised to erase all of the gains seen since President Donald Trump started the war against Iran as oil prices pull back on the prospect of further negotiations aimed at ending the more than six-week conflict.
“A near‑term grind‑higher in equities remains possible if the ceasefire holds and earnings surprise to the upside, but this window looks inherently unstable,” wrote Barclays equity derivatives strategists led by Stefano Pascale.
What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say:
“The S&P 500 is rising because markets are leaning into the belief the Iran War stops short of a full economic hit. The ceasefire appears to be holding, Saudi east-west pipeline capacity has been restored, and Iran is considering a pause in its own shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate further talks. Each headline on renewed negotiations keeps diplomacy alive, allowing traders see a smaller tail risk.“
— Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Corporate Highlights:
Citigroup Inc. traders rode a wave of volatility to push the Wall Street bank to its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, notching another success for Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser’s turnaround plan. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s traders posted their highest-ever quarterly revenue in the first three months of the year, with record stock-trading results boosting the total past the firm’s previous record by almost $2 billion. Wells Fargo & Co. said its exposure to private-credit firms was roughly $36.2 billion in the first quarter, offering details on a category closely watched by investors. United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby has floated a possible combination with American Airlines Group Inc., according to people familiar with the conversations. American Airlines jumped more than 7% in premarket trading while United rose more than 3%. Lucid Group Inc. named a new chief executive officer and announced $750 million of fresh investment from its two biggest backers, moves to shore up its operations as the electric-vehicle maker approaches a crucial production stretch. Johnson & Johnson reported first-quarter sales above Wall Street’s expectations and bumped up its outlook for the year, led by strong growth of new cancer medicines and a drug for treatment-resistant depression. BP Plc said its oil trading performance was exceptional in the first quarter as the Iran war caused a surge in prices. A Blue Owl Capital Inc. private credit fund raised $400 million from bond investors Monday, marking the first deal of its kind in over a month. Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4:09 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.8% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% The MSCI World Index rose 1.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1795 The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3567 The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 158.85 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $74,364.42 Ether rose 2.9% to $2,317.68 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.25% Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.02% Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.78% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 7% to $92.13 a barrel Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,843.94 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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