Oil Falls, US Stock Futures Climb on Iran Hopes: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Oil fell and US equity-index futures climbed as optimism grew over Washington’s efforts to end the nearly month-long Middle East conflict. The dollar weakened.
West Texas Intermediate crude slid as much as 4.9% in early Asian trading after the New York Times reported the US had sent Iran a 15-point plan and Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.7% after the index pared losses to close 0.4% lower. Asian equities were primed for gains, while Australian shares opened higher.
“Crude remains the tip of the spear in this headline-driven market,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Reports that a potential 30-day ceasefire may be in the works are easing worst-case pricing scenarios and concerns around demand destruction. Details remain limited and headlines are fluid, but signs there may be an off-ramp are reducing some of the risk premium in the market.”
Treasury futures on the benchmark 10-year note rose, indicating a gain in the underlying contract, with lower oil prices reducing the risk of inflation. Gold ended a nine-day losing run on Tuesday and held those gains in early Asian trading. Silver and Bitcoin also edged up.
Financial markets have whipsawed since the conflict erupted in late February, with headline-driven swings leaving traders “stopped out” of positions. Sharp volatility in crude is further clouding risk assessment, as surging commodities heighten inflation concerns and raise the prospect that policymakers may keep borrowing costs elevated or even tighten further.
The US sees the “possibility of diplomacy” and President Donald Trump signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations, noting it was related to Strait of Hormuz flows. The US and regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, but await a response from Tehran, Axios reported.
As the conflict that’s upended markets raged on, Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoys are involved in negotiations. Still, the US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Meanwhile, Iran has started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar with the matter have said, the latest sign of its control over the most important maritime energy route. Yet Tehran said non-hostile foreign ships are allowed to cross the waterway on its terms.
“It all comes down to the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “So, if we hear that ‘good progress is being made’ in the negotiations at the end of this week, it won’t be enough, if the Strait remains very restricted.”
Private Credit
Aside from the geopolitical risks, Maley also noted that the issues facing the private-credit market are not receding, so brushing these problems aside “is not a good idea.”
Two of the biggest names in private credit, Ares Management Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc., blocked investors from getting even half of the money they wanted out of their funds, a sign of mounting strain in the $1.8 trillion market.
Any optimism about the war in the Middle East ending without the US first making an attempt to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz, or without first getting more leverage in talks with Iran, still seems misplaced, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
“The longer oil prices stay high, the longer central banks will feel obligated to sound as if they will tighten policy,” he said.
Yet Wizman noted that hawkish policies that come in response to supply-side induced inflation have been proven to be the cause of much more financial stress than when monetary policy comes in response to an inflation that is demand-driven.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% as of 8:27 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures were little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.4% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.1617 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.66 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8929 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7001 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $70,686.68 Ether rose 0.5% to $2,157.74 Bonds
Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 5.00% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.9% to $88.77 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,507.65 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Charles Gorrivan.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
