US Stock Futures Edge Higher as Oil Trims Advance: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stock futures rose modestly as oil trimmed an advance that was driven by attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East. US diesel topped $5 a gallon for the first time since 2022.

S&P 500 contracts climbed 0.2% after the benchmark’s biggest gain since the start of the war. Brent crude rose as much as 4.8% after Iran struck energy facilities around the Persian Gulf, before paring the move. Treasuries were little changed after ADP Research reported a slowdown in private payroll growth. The dollar held steady.

The US-Israeli war against Iran continues to reverberate in markets, with Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey showing that investors are turning bearish and holding more cash. The bank said its broadest measure of market sentiment fell to a six-month low in March.

“The longer the oil price stays above $100 per barrel, the louder the alarm bells for the market over inflation risks,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

Oil has risen more than 40% since the war started. In the latest developments, operations were suspended at the Shah field in the United Arab Emirates, while an Iraqi oil field and an Emirati port were also targeted by drones and missiles. Israel said it killed Iran’s security chief in an overnight strike.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump renewed calls for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to expand strikes to Iranian oil infrastructure.

Nvidia Corp. added 0.3% in early trading. Analysts were positive after the firm said it expects to generate at least $1 trillion in sales from its flagship AI processors through 2027. Delta Air Lines Inc. jumped more than 4% after issuing an optimistic first-quarter sales target.

Indexes were mostly higher in Europe and Asia, following Monday’s rally in US markets. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% to head for its first back-to-back gain since the war began.

Investors were also keeping a close eye on central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank set to meet later in the week. In Australia, policymakers raised the key interest rate for a second straight meeting on Tuesday — the first back-to-back hike since mid-2023.

Markets have flipped to betting on rate hikes in the UK and Europe since the war in the Middle East started, while confidence in cuts in the US this year has faded.

“The bias is certainly that central banks will be more hawkish than the markets wants them to be,” said Andrew Chorlton, chief investment officer of fixed income at M&G Investment Managers. “We don’t expect anyone else to raise rates but no one is going to cut rates and any remaining expectations of rate cuts are slowly diminishing.”

What Bloomberg strategists say…

“Fundamentals have not changed: higher energy prices are driving a stagflationary shock, the extent of which depends on how long prices remain elevated. With the equity market reaction still tepid, there is scope for further downside.”

— Skylar Montgomery Koning, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here.

Corporate Highlights:

Nordea Bank Abp is putting as many as 1,500 jobs at risk as it expects artificial intelligence to make processes more efficient and cut costs. Mastercard Inc. said it will acquire the stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK for as much as $1.8 billion Artificial intelligence data center developer Nebius Group NV said it intends to raise about $3.75 billion in convertible debt on the heels of a major commercial deal with Meta Platforms Inc. Beijing is restricting Chinese companies incorporated overseas from seeking initial public offerings in Hong Kong. Canadian billionaire Stephen Smith and his family holding company have reached an agreement to acquire a minority stake in the publisher of The Economist magazine, according to the companies. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 8:31 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% The MSCI World Index rose 0.9% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1514 The British pound was little changed at $1.3328 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.03 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $73,820.57 Ether fell 1% to $2,321.51 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.21% Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.92% Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.72% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $95.48 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,021.01 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus, Neil Campling and Rose Henderson.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.