Stocks Bounce From Lows on Hopes for US-Iran Talks: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders grappling with a range of possible outcomes for the war in the Middle East drove stocks away from session lows amid hopes for talks to end a conflict that keeps dragging on. Oil climbed.
The S&P 500 was little changed after falling almost 1%. President Donald Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoys are negotiating with Iran. The US and regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, but are awaiting a response from Tehran, Axios reported.
Trump signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations, even as he deploys more troops to the Middle East. Iran has circulated a letter to member countries of the International Maritime Organization saying “non-hostile vessels” can transit the Strait “in co-ordination with Iranian authorities,” the Financial Times reported.
“It all comes down to the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “So, if we hear that ‘good progress is being made’ in the negotiations at the end of this week, it won’t be enough, if the Strait remains very restricted.”
Aside from the geopolitical risks, Maley also noted that the issues facing the private-credit market are not receding, so brushing these problems aside “is not a good idea.”
Two of the biggest names in private credit, Ares Management Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc., blocked investors from getting even half of the money they wanted out of their funds, a sign of mounting strain in the $1.8 trillion market.
Barclays Plc’s Venu Krishna raised his year-end target on the S&P 500 to 7,650 despite growing macroeconomic risks from war in the Middle East, AI disruption and private-credit stress. The gauge hovered near 6,575.
“The macro backdrop has become more fragile,” he wrote. “But we believe the US continues to offer stronger nominal growth than other major economies and a secular growth engine in technology that shows few signs of stopping.”
Any optimism about the war in the Middle East ending without the US first making an attempt to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz, or without getting first more leverage in talks with Iran, still seems misplaced, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
“The longer oil prices stay high, the longer central banks will feel obligated to sound as if they will tighten policy,” he said.
Yet Wizman noted that hawkish policies that come in response to supply-side induced inflation have been proven to be the cause of much more financial stress than when monetary policy comes in response to an inflation that is demand-driven.
In the wake of the war, growth in US business activity slowed in March to an almost one-year low and prices paid for materials and other inputs picked up.
“If this proves to be a short-term disruption, as markets are currently pricing, then the baseline outlook still assumes moderate global growth,” said Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls at Pacific Investment Management Co. “However, a prolonged disruption would pose more significant challenges and increase global recession risks.”
Corporate Highlights:
United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said ticket prices may have to go up by 20% if jet fuel prices remain elevated for longer. Amazon Web Services is developing an AI agent to automate some of functions for sales, business development and other groups that have been targeted in the tech giant’s sweeping job cuts, the Information reported, citing people familiar with the matter. OpenAI is nearing a deal to raise about $10 billion from venture investors, according to people familiar with the matter, bringing the total haul from its latest funding round to roughly $120 billion. Estée Lauder Cos. said it’s in talks to buy Puig Brands SA in a deal that would create a cosmetics giant with about $20 billion in annual sales. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 3 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1584 The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3385 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 158.96 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $69,414.56 Ether fell 2% to $2,119.32 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.38% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.03% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.96% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4% to $91.63 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,392.66 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
