Stocks Bounce From Lows on Hopes for US-Iran Talks: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fluctuated and oil rose as traders grappled with a range of possible outcomes for the war in the Middle East, with US President Donald Trump claiming talks are underway to end the conflict.
Despite the absence of any visible signs the conflict is abating, the S&P 500 erased a drop that earlier approached 1%. An Iranian source told CNN there had been “outreach” between Washington and Tehran, with Iran willing to listen to “sustainable” proposals to end the war. Brent topped $102. Gold was little changed after nine straight days of losses. Treasury yields and the dollar rose.
Israeli officials said the country will persist with strikes. Iran’s biggest Gulf Arab neighbors are considering joining the US-Israeli war against the nation, and could be pushed to if Tehran attacks their critical infrastructure, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.
Iran has started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, another sign of Tehran’s control over the world’s most important maritime energy channel.
“It all comes down to the re-opening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “So, if we hear that ‘good progress is being made’ in the negotiations at the end of this week, it won’t be enough, if the Strait remains very restricted.”
Aside from the geopolitical risks, Maley also noted that the issues facing the private-credit market are not receding, so brushing these problems aside “is not a good idea.”
Alternative asset managers fell as Apollo Global Management Inc. and Ares Management Corp. became the latest to curb withdrawals from private-credit funds. The industry has been hit with a wave of redemption requests amid growing anxiety around lending practices and exposure to businesses that are vulnerable to artificial-intelligence disruption.
Monday’s optimism about the war in the Middle East ending without the US first making an attempt to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz, or without getting first more leverage in talks with Iran, still seems misplaced, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
“The longer oil prices stay high, the longer central banks will feel obligated to sound as if they will tighten policy,” he said.
Yet Wizman noted that hawkish policies that come in response to supply-side induced inflation have been proven to be the cause of much more financial stress than when monetary policy comes in response to an inflation that is demand-driven.
In the wake of the war, growth in US business activity slowed in March to an almost one-year low and prices paid for materials and other inputs picked up.
“If this proves to be a short-term disruption, as markets are currently pricing, then the baseline outlook still assumes moderate global growth,” said Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls at Pacific Investment Management Co. “However, a prolonged disruption would pose more significant challenges and increase global recession risks.”
For now, markets remain at the mercy of any headlines related to the war.
“Traders are hanging on any signals around whether ceasefire talks are even remotely on the table,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Until there’s something concrete, it’s hard to see risk appetite improving in any meaningful way.”
Corporate Highlights:
United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said ticket prices may have to go up by 20% if jet fuel prices remain elevated for longer. Software firms retreated as a report that Amazon Web Services is developing new AI tools added to concern over reduced demand for legacy products. A JPMorgan Chase & Co.-led bank group made further changes to the nearly $15 billion junk-debt sale for the record leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts Inc., showing the day-to-day challenge in selling risky debt amid a market-moving Middle East war. Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst raised their offer for Janus Henderson Group Plc to $52 a share in cash as they fend off a rival bid from Victory Capital Holdings. Estée Lauder Cos. said it’s in talks to buy Puig Brands SA in a deal that would create a cosmetics giant with about $20 billion in annual sales. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. has no immediate plan to take over Jefferies Financial Group Inc., according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, after a media report of a potential deal. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 11:21 a.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1587 The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3393 The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 158.74 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $70,017.51 Ether fell 1% to $2,139.12 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.38% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.01% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.92% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.7% to $91.37 a barrel Spot gold was little changed ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
