Stocks Waver and Oil Climbs as Iran War Drags on: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders grappling with a range of possible outcomes for the war in the Middle East left stocks wavering amid a conflict that keeps dragging on. Oil climbed.
The S&P 500 trimmed a decline of almost 1%. An Iranian source told CNN there had been “outreach” between Washington and Tehran, with Iran willing to listen to “sustainable” proposals. Brent topped $103. Software firms fell as a report that Amazon Web Services is developing new AI tools added to concern over reduced demand for legacy products.
Gold halted nine straight days of losses. Treasury yields and the dollar rose.
“Markets remain firmly at the mercy of geopolitical headlines,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Traders are hanging on to any signals around whether ceasefire talks are even remotely on the table. Until there’s something concrete, it’s hard to see risk appetite improving in any meaningful way.”
Israeli officials said the country will persist with strikes against Iran even as President Donald Trump claimed talks are underway. Iran’s biggest Gulf Arab neighbors are considering joining the war, and could be pushed to if Tehran attacks their critical infrastructure, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.
Iran has started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, another sign of Tehran’s control over the world’s most-important maritime energy channel.
“It all comes down to the re-opening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “So, if we hear that ‘good progress is being made’ in the negotiations at the end of this week, it won’t be enough, if the Strait remains very restricted.”
Aside from the geopolitical risks, Maley also noted that the issues facing the private-credit market are not receding, so brushing these problems aside “is not a good idea.”
Two of the biggest names in private credit, Ares Management Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc., blocked investors from getting even half of the money they wanted out of their funds, a sign of mounting strain in the $1.8 trillion market.
Any optimism about the war in the Middle East ending without the US first making an attempt to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz, or without getting first more leverage in talks with Iran, still seems misplaced, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
“The longer oil prices stay high, the longer central banks will feel obligated to sound as if they will tighten policy,” he said.
Yet Wizman noted that hawkish policies that come in response to supply-side induced inflation have been proven to be the cause of much more financial stress than when monetary policy comes in response to an inflation that is demand-driven.
In the wake of the war, growth in US business activity slowed in March to an almost one-year low and prices paid for materials and other inputs picked up.
“If this proves to be a short-term disruption, as markets are currently pricing, then the baseline outlook still assumes moderate global growth,” said Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls at Pacific Investment Management Co. “However, a prolonged disruption would pose more significant challenges and increase global recession risks.”
Corporate Highlights:
United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said ticket prices may have to go up by 20% if jet fuel prices remain elevated for longer. Amazon Web Services is developing an AI agent to automate some of functions for sales, business development and other groups that have been targeted in the tech giant’s sweeping job cuts, the Information reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst raised their offer for Janus Henderson Group Plc to $52 a share in cash as they fend off a rival bid from Victory Capital Holdings. Estée Lauder Cos. said it’s in talks to buy Puig Brands SA in a deal that would create a cosmetics giant with about $20 billion in annual sales. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. has no immediate plan to take over Jefferies Financial Group Inc., according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, after a media report of a potential deal. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 12:39 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1584 The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3380 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 158.91 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $69,526.71 Ether fell 1.7% to $2,124.35 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.38% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.02% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.95% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5% to $92.51 a barrel Spot gold was little changed ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
