March 8 vote poll: opposition grows to reducing Swiss media licence fee

The outcome of the vote on the initiative to reduce radio and television licence fees remains uncertain, but the no vote is gaining ground. Keystone / Jean-Christophe Bott

Opponents of the initiative to reduce the radio and television licence fee in Switzerland have gained ground during campaigning: the no vote now stands at 54%, according to the second SBC poll ahead of the federal vote on March 8.

Support for individual taxation of married couples is also eroding. The counter-proposal to the “Cash is freedom” initiative could squeeze through, while the climate fund initiative seems destined to be rejected.

“There are many indications that the no to the SBC initiative will win, but we cannot guarantee this,” says Martina Mousson, a political scientist at the gfs.bern institute, who conducted the poll on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC).

The opponents of the text, which proposes a reduction in the radio and TV licence fee from CHF335 ($435) to CHF200 per year and per household, have indeed consolidated their lead during the campaign, but the race remains close.

A share of 54% of the electorate polled are now opposed to the initiative, which will be put to the people on March 8. The no camp has thus increased by two percentage points in just under a month. Of the rest, 44% of those polled support the text, while the remaining 2% are undecided. 

With 58% rejection share, the Swiss Abroad are more clearly against a reduction in the licence fee that finances the programmes of the SBC (Swissinfo’s parent company). However, the diaspora does not have to pay this fee. “This more marked refusal can be explained by the political behaviour of the diaspora, which tends to live in large urban centres and traditionally votes more to the left,” says Mousson.

Only people close to the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, which is behind the text, continue to massively support the initiative. While the clearest rejection comes from the left-wing parties, the electorate affiliated to other parties is also against a reduction in the licence fee.

It is also a question of confidence in the government: those who distrust it continue to overwhelmingly support the proposal, while those who trust it are clearly opposed to it.

The no vote has also increased in almost all income categories and education levels. “The no trend affects all strata of the population,” says Mousson. However, there is a notable difference between the sexes: women reject the initiative by a large majority, while men remain divided on the subject. “Historically, women are more in favour of publicly funded services,” explains Mousson. Support for the initiative has increased in only one group of the population: people aged 18-39. 

>> Read our explainer on the media licence fee vote:

Sharp decline in support for individual taxation

Starting with a clear lead in the polls, the reform of the taxation of married couples has seen this margin melt over the course of the campaign. The proposal provides that married spouses each file their own tax return separately, whereas they are currently taxed jointly.

Only 52% of those polled still support the reform: its supporters have lost 12 points compared to the first poll. Opponents now make up a 44% share, while the undecided still represent 4%.

Support for individual taxation has not been eroded as strongly among the Swiss Abroad. They are still 60% in favour. This could be explained by the fact that a large proportion of expats already experience some form of individual taxation in their host country.

However, the no vote has also risen sharply, by 14 percentage points, in this category of the population to 35%. The remaining 5% do not yet have a fixed opinion.

The partisan polarisation around this subject has increased. While individual taxation still appealed to a majority from the left to the right at the beginning of the campaign, the People’s Party and Centre Party voters are now opposed to it. The centre-right Radical-Liberal Party remains in favour of it, but less so than before.

The evolution of opinion on this reform is unusual. When it comes to a proposal from the authorities, the electorate tends to align itself with the position of the government and parliament.

In this case, it is rather the flaws of the project that have been brought to light. gfs.bern notes that the fear of inconvenience for households where only one person generates the income has become more important. The argument in favour of equal tax treatment for married and unmarried people continues to garner the clearest support.

Suspense remains as to the outcome of the vote. The polling institute believes that the yes camp retains a certain lead on the argument level. However, the importance of certain issues during the campaign tends to favour the opposition. “The camp that manages to mobilise its electorate the most will win,” says Lukas Golder, a political scientist at gfs.bern.

>> Read our explainer on the taxation of married couples:

Counter-proposal to the cash initiative is attractive

The Swiss seem to be leaning more towards the counter-proposal of the government and parliament than the “Cash is freedom” initiative.

The initiative, which wants to ensure that coins and notes remain available in sufficient quantities, started with a lot of sympathy but has lost ground. It still has 61% support, while 26% of those polled are against it and 3% remain undecided.

The counter-proposal has progressed: it now polls 70% support, 24% rejection and 6% undecided. The text drawn up by the government and parliament takes up the basic idea of the initiative and makes it clear: it aims to guarantee the supply of cash rather than coins and notes.

>> Read our explainer on the cash initiative:

A bitter flop in sight for the initiative for a climate fund

The initiative for a climate fund seems to be heading towards an iceberg. Already in a bad position in the first poll, rejection has only grown in recent weeks. Now, 65% of those interviewed say they are opposed to the text, while 31% are still in favour and 4% remain undecided.

Rejection is less marked among the diaspora (51%), which traditionally votes more in favour of the environment. However, a large majority of those surveyed do not want to further burden the federal finances, which are already under pressure.

>> Read our explainer on the climate fund initiative

Survey methodology

For the second poll in view of the federal referendum on March 8, the gfs.bern institute surveyed 11,754 voters between February 11 and February 19. The statistical margin of error is between +/-2.8 percentage points.

Edited by Samuel Jaberg. Adapted from French by AI/ac/ts

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