UBS survey: Swiss economic outlook brightens after US trade deal
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UBS survey: Swiss economic outlook brightens after US trade deal
The Swiss trade deal with the United States is said to have improved the outlook for the Swiss economy. Financial analysts surveyed by Swiss bank UBS are once again much more optimistic about the prospects for the Swiss economy.
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The CFA indicator, which is compiled as part of the monthly survey conducted by UBS, improved sharply to 12.2 points in November, as the major bank announced on Wednesday. The index thus climbed by almost 20 points compared to the previous month and reached its highest level since January.
Prior to this, the index had plummeted in September (-46.4) and August (-53.8) due to the tariff shock on August 1, when Trump introduced an increase in the punitive tariff for Switzerland to 39%.
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Above all, analysts’ expectations regarding export momentum have recently brightened considerably, UBS explained, pointing to the joint declaration of intent between Switzerland and the US for a trade agreement.
Accordingly, 40% of the analysts surveyed now expect export momentum to improve over the next six months. This is a quarter more than a month ago. Only around 15% expected a deterioration.
Stable interest rates?
Meanwhile, experts believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will not make any interest rate hike at its monetary policy assessment in December. The probability of this is 72%.
The SNB is also expected to leave its key interest rate at 0% in the coming quarters. However, negative interest rates remain an issue. According to the analysts surveyed, there is a 34% probability that the key interest rate will be negative at the end of September 2026.
Some 41 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part in the current November survey. It took place from November 13 to 19. The Swiss tariff deal with the US was announced on November 14.
Translated from German by DeepL/jdp
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