OECD significantly lowers Swiss GDP forecast due to Trump
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OECD significantly lowers Swiss GDP forecast due to Trump
The Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly in 2025 and 2026 than previously assumed, according to the OECD economic organisation. This is due to slower global growth and the tariffs of US President Donald Trump.
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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is now forecasting GDP growth of 1.1% instead of 1.4% for Switzerland in 2025 and 1.2% instead of 1.9% in 2026, according to a report published on Tuesday.
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The report also states that growth will be driven by domestic demand. Real wage growth and rising employment are supporting consumption.
The picture is gloomier for exports, which are suffering from slower global growth and higher US tariffs. This is at least partially offset by higher investments in Germany.
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The risks are on the downside. According to the organisation’s experts, the trade dispute could strengthen demand for the Swiss franc and lead to an appreciation, which would further weaken exports. In addition, the planned investments in Germany are not yet set in stone.
Inflation expected to remain within target range
The OECD does not expect inflation to develop dramatically. The annual average for 2025 is expected to be +0.3% – despite the current negative inflation in May – and +0.6% for 2026. This puts inflation within the target range of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which ranges from 0% to 2%.
As usual, the OECD also provides politicians with advice: a reduction in administrative hurdles could lead to more investment by companies. This also applies in particular to the renewable energy sector, where faster authorisation procedures could help.
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Translated from German by DeepL/ts
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