Swiss politics tipped to become more right-wing and less green

In 2019, an unprecedented “green wave” washed into parliament in Bern. This time around, things look set to get back to business as usual. Keystone / Thomas Hodel

Voters on Sunday will elect a new parliament for the 2023-2027 legislative period. While the right-wing People’s Party is likely to return to winning form, the Greens are looking at losses. If this proves to be the case, Switzerland will be following a European trend.

At the end of an unprecedently warm October, Swiss environmentalist parties look to be headed for electoral defeat. After big gains in 2019, polls this time are unanimous in predicting heavy losses for the Green Party, who might even drop below the 10% mark, shedding 3.5 percentage points. The Liberal Greens (centrist) are also losing momentum.

+ Follow the results of the 2023 elections as they come in on Sunday

If the polls prove accurate, the Greens will likely have to say goodbye to any hopes of a seat in government. The party had intended to wait until after the elections to decide whether or not to stake a claim for the seat of outgoing Interior Minister Alain Berset, from the left-wing Social Democratic Party.

The green wave of 2019 has thus definitely broken – a trend seen throughout the European Union (EU). After success in the last European Parliament elections in 2019, the Greens are now in trouble there. They are also slumping in the polls in France and Germany, and are struggling to make headway in other member states.

People’s Party back on track

In Switzerland, the right-wing People’s Party has found fresh momentum after being among the losers four years ago. The country’s biggest political group may be heading for the second-best score in its history on Sunday. The party could grab 28% of the vote, according to the most recent survey by the Sotomo polling firm.

This success would also correspond to a Europe-wide trend, after right-wing gains in various countries. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni and her far-right Fratelli d’Italia have risen to power. In Sweden, a coalition of the right and far-right won the last elections. In Finland, the populist True Finns made their way into government earlier this year.

The race for third

However, the Swiss parliament’s shift to the right is likely to be moderate. On the one hand, it will be offset by gains – estimated at 1.5 percentage points – by the Social Democrats; the traditional party of the left is tipped to pick up some of the lost Green votes. A slight drop in support for the centre-right Radical-Liberal Party would also temper the move right.

The parties that lost in 2019 will be the winners in 2023, political scientists at Sotomo believe. Four years ago, small parties managed to hold their own. This year the biggest groups will set the pace. The exception to this, as mentioned, are the Radical-Liberals, who did poorly last time and who are tipped to do poorly again.

The rivalry between the Radical-Liberals and the Centre Party – they were neck and neck in recent polling – raises one of the big questions for these elections. If the Centre overtakes the Radical-Liberals as the third-strongest party in the country, it would mark a historic upset. The makeup of government could become an issue, since the Swiss “magic formula” decrees that the three largest parties get two seats each in cabinet and the fourth party gets just one.

Lacklustre campaign

The election campaign this time did not offer huge drama. Parties focussed on core themes without venturing too far into rival territory. On September 26, the announcement of a major rise in mandatory health insurance sparked debate, and some polls say the issue may have become a crucial one for the outcome of the elections. If so, this would likely benefit the Social Democrats, who built their campaign around issues of purchasing power.

Increased immigration pressures at Europe’s borders have meanwhile played to the advantage of the People’s Party, which has long made migration its core issue. The strategy seems to have worked: polls show that immigration is a major concern of citizens, as well as a big factor in how they vote.

Conversely, while extreme weather events multiply and global warming remains high on the list of priorities for most people, the Greens don’t seem to have benefited. “This topic does not mobilise the electorate. People may feel just overwhelmed by the issue, or think that Switzerland can do little to resolve it,” thinks Sotomo political scientist Michael Hermann.

Record number of candidates

A record number of candidates have thrown their hat into the ring for the 200 seats in the House of Representatives and (most of) the 46 seats in the Senate: 5,909 people (41% of them women) are running for the House of Representatives, including 43 Swiss living abroad.

On the other hand, voter turnout is forecast to be low. Four years ago, just 45.1% of the citizens cast their ballot, and “the figure should drop again this time”, says Hermann. His prediction is based on survey results about the number of people who say elections are “very important for the future of the country” – the figure is down.

Results for the House of Representatives, which uses a proportional representation electoral system, are expected by Sunday night. The elections to the Senate are run according to a first-past-the-post system (with a few exceptions), and results will be out on Sunday only for cantons where a candidate scores an absolute majority – i.e. more than 50% of votes cast. If this doesn’t happen, cantons will hold various run-off elections in November.

Exceptionally, Neuchâtel and Jura elect their senators by proportional representation without a run-off vote, while Appenzell Inner Rhodes and Obwalden have already elected their senators for the next legislative period – the two small cantons have one senator each.

Translated from French by Terence MacNamee/dos