China Cold Snap Risks Further Boosting Winter LNG Purchases

(Bloomberg) — A forecast for frigid weather in Northeast China threatens to push liquefied natural gas prices higher, as the falling temperatures coincide with a cold spell in Europe — home to rival buyers.

Temperatures in parts of Northeast China seen at 6C below average this week, and the anomalously cold conditions will spread throughout much of the country next week, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The Korean Peninsula and Japan are also set to be hit by a cold wave.

This comes as chilly conditions in Europe helped to push the region’s natural gas benchmark higher by the most in almost seven months. A jump in Chinese demand — the world’s biggest LNG buyer — risks pulling LNG shipments away from Europe, which still relies on the fuel to offset lost Russian pipeline supplies.

China’s LNG imports are beginning to rebound after months of lackluster demand. Shipments rose to 7.71 million tons in December, up 8% year-over-year, according to a note from the research arm of ENN Group.

Still, rising domestic gas output and pipeline deliveries will likely temper any potential gains in LNG purchases. Some Chinese buyers are sitting on high inventories, and resold some shipments last week slated for delivery over the next few months.

More News:

Kansai Electric, a Japanese utility, is seeking to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Feb. 16-18 delivery Indian Oil didn’t award a tender seeking to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for March delivery to the Ennore terminal Taiwan’s CPC is seeking to buy an LNG cargo on a DES basis for March Trafigura purchased six physical LNG cargoes for February delivery into northeast Asia The Perle LNG tanker with a cargo from Gazprom’s sanctioned Portovaya liquefied-gas plant is currently sailing off China’s coast near the island of Hainan, according to MarineTraffic ship-tracking data China’s liquefied natural gas imports rose 8% y/y to 7.71m tons in December, after the arbitrage window to resell contracted shipments closed and forced the nation’s buyers to take more cargoes back to the domestic market, according to a note from the research arm of ENN Group Drivers:

European natural gas prices jumped for a third session as weather forecasts signaled frigid temperatures might simultaneously hit Europe and Asia in the next two weeks China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on Jan. 12 was 230k tons, 0.9% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data European gas storage levels were ~54% full on Jan. 11, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~69% Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 230k tons/day on Jan. 12, 35% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~20.3 bcf/day on Jan. 12, up 3.8% w/w: BNEF Buy tender:

Sell tender:

–With assistance from Mary Hui and Kathy Chen.

(Updates throughout.)

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