Stocks Advance as Oil Below $90 Lifts Sentiment: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and oil held below $90 a barrel after a report on the proposed release of oil reserves, aimed at easing higher energy prices, boosted market confidence after a surge in volatility across assets.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%, gaining for a second day, as the Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency proposed the largest crude reserve release in its history. US equity-index futures rose 0.4%. Brent, which initially fell more than 1% on the report, fluctuated.
Technology shares, seen as less exposed to the war in the Middle East, surged, with a regional gauge climbing 3%. Companies including Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the gainers. Broader confidence was also supported as Oracle Corp. shares jumped 8% in aftermarket trading on better-than-expected revenue.
“Markets are still skittish over the Middle East developments,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “Hence, any news of oil release from strategic reserves, whether from IEA or the US or the G-7 provides a bit of near-term relief for oil markets.”
Markets stayed choppy as oil suffered its steepest one-day slide in four years on Tuesday after mixed signals from the Trump administration on the Iran war.
Volatility spiked as US Energy Secretary Chris Wright erroneously posted — and then deleted — a message that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only for the White House to concede no such operation had occurred.
The initial oil shock appears to have been priced in, and the base case for oil prices is moving lower as there is “a lot of political will to try and make that happen,” said Joshua Crabb, head of Asia Pacific equities at Robeco in Hong Kong.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Unless traffic through Hormuz starts to climb rapidly back toward pre-war levels, energy prices will remain elevated as the war, and the effective closure of the strait, chokes off supplies and leads to more and more output cuts.”
— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader. For full analysis, click here.
The conflict, in its second week, showed no signs of easing with President Donald Trump warning Iran against laying mines in the key energy chokepoint after news reports suggested it was either preparing to or had already begun doing so.
Brent crude prices have risen since the start of the year as the effective closure of the strait, which typically handles a fifth of global oil flows, forces producers to curtail output. Tuesday’s move lower came on expectations that world leaders would intervene before the worst of any supply shock emerges.
“While traders welcomed the sudden drop in oil prices, the geopolitical backdrop remains far from stable, leaving markets vulnerable to further volatility,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Ultimately, the biggest factor for markets will be whether energy supplies from the region resume normally.”
In other corners of the market, gold extended gains from the prior session, trading over $5,200 an ounce. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year falling one basis point to 4.14% on Wednesday.
As Wall Street was rattled by oil volatility, traders geared up for inflation data due after the latest jobs report challenged perceptions the labor market is stabilizing.
The consumer price index report on Wednesday is projected to show a core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose just 0.2% last month. That would suggest some easing in price pressures before the outbreak of the war in Iran introduced new uncertainty about the inflation outlook.
Even though the reserve release report provided some temporary relief to markets, it’s prudent to keep hedges in place for now, said Jun Bei Liu, co-founder and lead portfolio manager of hedge fund Ten Cap Investment Management in Sydney.
“It’s important to have hedges in place, including exposure to some energy names, because the outlook is very uncertain,” she said.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 11:53 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 1.7% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1627 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 158.28 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 6.8671 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $69,787.76 Ether fell 0.8% to $2,025.95 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.14% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.190% Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.84% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $84.32 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.5% to $5,216.35 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ruth Carson and Abhishek Vishnoi.
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