Stocks Drop and Oil Rises as Iran Conflict Worsens: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks retreated and oil rose as the war in Iran continued to intensify and US President Donald Trump threatened more destruction.
Futures pointed to a 0.7% drop for the S&P 500, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2% to $115 a barrel. The dollar weakened and Treasury yields rose.
The clock is ticking down to Trump’s 8 p.m. Eastern Time cut-off for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face sweeping infrastructure attacks. With hours to go before the deadline expires, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if no accord is reached.
“Given the level of uncertainty, it’s really hard to have any conviction in shorter-term market moves,” said Leonie MacCann, head of client investment solutions, Keyridge Asset Management. “We’re not trying to trade the conflict — because you’re just going to get whipsawed.”
Separately, Israel said it had completed dozens of strikes on infrastructure sites in Iran, while Axios reported that the US conducted attacks on military targets on Kharg island — a key oil shipment point.
US Treasury 10-year yields rose one basis point to 4.34%. Gold was flat around $4,660 an ounce.
Trump’s deadline marks the latest pivotal moment in the war, which has killed thousands of people and triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global oil market.
On Tuesday, Israel told Iranians to refrain from using their country’s railway network, the first warning about such infrastructure that usually precedes an attack. Iran launched seven ballistic missiles and several more drones at Saudi Arabia overnight into Tuesday, while the Israel Defense Forces reported two missile volleys from Iran since midnight.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say:
“The oil market is still indicating stress, with both WTI and Brent remaining elevated and rallying further today. Typically, commodity markets are more pessimistic than stocks. Commodities, and commodity traders, are likely to have a much better read on just how disruptive and long-lasting the damage to energy facilities and the (semi) blockade on the Hormuz Strait will be.”
— Simon White, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here.
Traders are also keeping a close watch on key inflation readings due later this week after data Friday showed a strong March payrolls print and lower unemployment rate.
The recent economic numbers aren’t boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates anytime soon. March CPI on Friday is predicted to show the largest month-over-month increase in headline inflation since June 2022, largely driven by a spike in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict.
Corporate Highlights:
ASML shares fell as much as 4.7% on Tuesday after US lawmakers unveiled legislation aimed at tightening restrictions on chip tool exports to China. Universal Music Group shares rose as much as 24% in Amsterdam, but trade well below the value of an offer from Pershing Square Capital Management amid doubt over whether the deal will happen. Broadcom shares rose as much as 2.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the chipmaker announced a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. Managed care companies gained in the premarket after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 2.48% rate hike for health insurers in 2027. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 8:32 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1563 The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3253 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.82 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $68,385.52 Ether fell 3.1% to $2,082.94 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.33% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.03% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.86% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $114.99 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,663.23 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ruth Carson, Carmeli Argana, Momoka Yokoyama, Neil Campling, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Sujata Rao.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
