US Stock Futures Gain as Crude Oil Drops on Iran: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Global stocks rose to record highs as crude oil fell after officials signaled the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. The dollar weakened.
Futures contracts on the S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 were up 1.3%. US cash markets are shut Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The dollar retreated against all of its Group-of-10 peers.
The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, rose 0.4% to an all-time high closing level. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gained for a sixth straight session to the highest intraday level since the outbreak of the Iran war. Trading volumes were light, with a number of markets including the UK, Norway and Denmark closed for holidays.
Brent crude dropped more than 5% to below $100 a barrel amid optimism a deal will help restore the flow of oil through the vital Middle East artery. Senior US officials said Sunday that the US and Iran were nearing an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though final approval from both sides could still take several days. Iran said a deal isn’t imminent, though there is consensus on a number of issues.
The improvement in risk sentiment follows weeks of stalemate between the US and Iran after several previous efforts to strike a deal. Global equities have since surged on optimism that Middle East tensions may ease and on renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade, while elevated oil prices and higher inflation pushed bond yields to multi-year highs.
“A clear FOMO factor contributes to unexpectedly strong global risk appetite: investors don’t want to be left out if the Iran war comes to an end while the AI theme continues to lift the stock market,” said Dana Malas, a strategist at SEB.
Italy’s benchmark equity index rose past its all-time closing high set in 2000, with a recent rally in energy and chip stocks supercharging it to record levels. Among individual stock moves in Europe, Delivery Hero SE jumped more than 10% after it received a take-over offer from Uber Technologies Inc. in a deal that would value the German delivery company at about €10 billion ($11.6 billion).
While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The deal is still a work in progress and the US is going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…
“The unprecedented pace of the drawdown in US crude oil inventories highlights the importance for global markets that the weekend’s efforts to reach a deal between Washington and Tehran bear fruit.”
— Garfield Reynolds, Markets Live team leader. For more on the analysis, click here.
“After today’s market moves, the most likely scenario already appears to be largely priced in,” said Roberto Scholtes Ruiz, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Therefore, I would expect some ‘sell the news’ dynamics once a deal is finally reached, and I would refrain from adding exposure to equities until yield curves move lower.”
Traders remain focused on inflation. They have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, underscoring expectations that the US central bank chair Kevin Warsh will need to act swiftly. Later this week, US Personal Consumption Expenditures data and inflation readings across Europe will offer clues on price pressures and the direction of interest rates.
Warsh, who has promised the biggest shakeup in decades at the US central bank, was sworn into office Friday. Trump stressed that he wants Warsh to independently lead the Fed, as he looked to downplay investor concern that he would pressure the new central bank chief on policy decisions.
The Fed may have enough reason to justify an interest rate cut rather than a hike under new chairman Warsh, according to BlackRock Inc.
Elsewhere, China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against popular brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% as of 9:26 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9% The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1645 The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3501 The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 158.91 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $77,279.24 Ether rose 1.1% to $2,114.42 Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 2.93% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.1% to $91.70 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,561.61 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Macarena Muñoz, Nicholas Lua and Anand Krishnamoorthy.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
