Stocks Rally in Runup to Fed Meeting, Oil Drops: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Equities rallied for a third day as renewed optimism around artificial intelligence underpinned risk appetite before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Oil and the dollar fell.

The MSCI All Country World Index — the broadest measure of global equities — rose 0.4%, extending its advance to a third day. Asian shares rose 2.2%, led by technology stocks, as optimistic comments from Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang lifted chipmakers. Samsung Electronics Co. surged more than 7%.

Gains in Asia followed advances on Wall Street, with technology shares finding favor among investors as sectors seen as less directly exposed to the fallout from the war in Iran. Equity-index futures indicated an almost 1% jump for European stocks and for the gains to extend to the US as well.

Supporting sentiment was a 2.6% drop in Brent crude, which traded around $101 a barrel. Oil dipped as Iraq signed a deal to resume exports via Turkey that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, and as the US stepped up efforts to force the reopening of the key waterway. Treasuries rose as oil’s drop eases inflation concerns.

Even after the longest stock rally in more than a month, investors remain on heightened alert to the war in Iran and the fallout from the near-closure of the strait, a key energy chokepoint that risks stoking inflation. How policymakers respond to that is now top of mind for investors, with the Federal Reserve set to deliver its interest-rate decision later Wednesday.

“There is a growing sense that markets are trying to look through the current tensions,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Still, markets aren’t getting carried away. If the conflict drags on, the risk is that it starts to weigh more heavily on stock markets again.”

In geopolitical news, US President Donald Trump abandoned his effort to recruit partners for the war with Iran and scolded allies who openly rejected his appeals, even as he repeated claims the conflict would end soon.

Trump’s comment that he does not need cooperation from NATO or other countries “actually reassured markets in the sense that the situation may not escalate into a full-scale war,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a chief strategist at Asset Management One.

The US and Israel nonetheless kept up their attacks with little clarity on when operations would end, with Israel saying it had killed Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, in an overnight operation. Trump threatened to expand strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s main export hub, while Gulf countries continued to face attacks from Iran-sent drones.

“Investors should expect continued volatility until the energy situation stabilizes,” said veteran strategist Louis Navellier. Gains for US stocks despite higher oil prices reflect expectations for solid earnings and economic growth, he said.

In other corners of the market, a gauge of the dollar edged lower for a third consecutive day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year dropping two basis points to 4.18%. Gold fluctuated to trade just above $5,000 an ounce.

What Bloomberg strategists say…

The stabilization in oil is supporting a bid in Treasuries, but without a durable easing in price pressure, markets remain driven more by geopolitics than monetary policy.

— Brendan Fagan, Macro strategist. For full analysis, click here.

Focus later Wednesday will turn to the Fed, which is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention shifting to how it may respond if the fallout from the war pulls its policy goals in opposite directions.

Bond traders are scaling back some of the aggressive bets that had largely driven markets to price out Fed rate cuts this year. While no change is expected Wednesday, policymakers will set projections on the rates path in coming months. Traders will also scrutinize Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for the central bank’s views on rising energy prices against signs of a softening labor market.

“If the conflict drags on and pushes energy prices — and thus inflation — higher, it will reinforce a stronger US dollar and further diminish prospects for Fed easing,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia, wrote in a note.

Corporate Highlights:

Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company is firing up manufacturing of H200 AI accelerators for customers in China. BHP Group has appointed Brandon Craig as its new chief executive, as the world’s biggest miner grapples with a slower Chinese economy and a shift toward more aggressive growth in copper. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is raising prices for its AI computing and storage products by as much as 34%, in response to demand and rising infrastructure costs. Chinese shares related to OpenClaw jumped, buoyed by bullish comments from Nvidia Corp.’s chief on the potential of artificial intelligence agents. Qualcomm Inc. plans to buy back another $20 billion worth of shares and raise its quarterly cash dividend. Boeing Co. signaled that several performance issues will weigh on its first-quarter results, from fewer-than-planned deliveries of its widebody aircraft and wiring defects on the 737 Max to the cost of turning around a key supplier. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 6:42 a.m. London time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.1% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.9% S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.1% Japan’s Topix rose 2.5% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.8% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.9% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1542 The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 158.71 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 6.8757 per dollar The British pound was little changed at $1.3367 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $74,053.31 Ether fell 0.2% to $2,324.56 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.18% Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.91% Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.69% Japan’s 10-year yield declined 5.5 basis points to 2.210% Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.90% Commodities

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,012.18 an ounce West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.5% to $92.80 a barrel This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Ruth Carson and Aya Wagatsuma.

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