Stocks Climb as Trump Hints War Could Be Over Soon: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street staged a dramatic comeback, with stocks and bonds rebounding on hopes the 10-day-old Iran war may be nearing a conclusion. Oil tumbled in post-settlement trading after earlier topping $100.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% as President Donald Trump told CBS the conflict is “very complete, pretty much” and the military operation is “very far” ahead of its initial four- to five-week timeframe. The equity benchmark erased an intraday loss of over 1.5% for the first time since April. US crude dropped to around $87 in late hours. Ten-year Treasury yields halted a five-day increase.
The whipsaw session underscored how exposed markets remain to every development in the Middle East conflict, with a single headline enough to reverse billions of dollars in losses. Volatility shows no signs of letting up as investors weigh a fast-shifting geopolitical conflict with no clear trading playbook.
“We expect markets to stay very short-term focused, volatile and headline-driven as the conflict plays out this week,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.
A wild ride in energy markets continued on Monday, with oil rocked by intense prices swings as traders parsed through all the moves in Iran and the impacts on global supplies.
Group of Seven finance ministers said they were ready to take any steps needed to support energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves — although the group isn’t at the point of doing so yet.
Meantime, Trump is expected to review a set of options to tame oil prices, including restricting US exports and waiving some federal taxes, Reuters reported.
“I have a plan for everything,” Trump told the New York Post.
There’s a “push/pull” between the real-world issues causing higher oil prices, inflation and growth fears versus the undercurrent of FOMO (fear of missing out) that keeps an underlying bid in stocks, according to Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“FOMO is labeled as fear, but it’s really greed, and I would assert that there is still plenty of greed out there relative to fear,” he added.
Still, US stocks are facing a growing risk of a sharp rout this year, said Ed Yardeni, who updated his outlook for what he describes as “fast-moving times.”
The founder of Yardeni Research raised the probability of a meltdown to 35% for the rest of the year, up from 20%. He also slashed the odds of a meltup — a rally driven more by investor enthusiasm than underlying fundamentals — to just 5% from 20%.
Traders are unprepared for a correction in the S&P 500 that could see the gauge falling as much as 10% from its peak as a result of the war, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Andrew Tyler, who turned “tactically bearish.”
“Although volatility may feel uncomfortable, could rise from here, and possibly cause a near-term drawdown in stocks, volatility in itself tends to be brief when it reaches more extreme levels,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “And, more often than not, the extreme volatility provides investors with a solid long-term entry point to buy stocks rather than sell.”
Corporate Highlights:
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. gave an outlook for revenue in the current quarter that exceeded analysts’ estimates, a sign the company is benefiting from solid demand for hardware that helps customers run AI workloads. Apple Inc.’s artificial intelligence struggles are rippling through its product plans, forcing the company to delay a long-in-the-works smart home display until later this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Anthropic PBC sued the Defense Department for declaring the AI giant posed a risk to the US supply chain, further ramping up a high-stakes dispute with the Pentagon over safeguards on the company’s technology. Novo Nordisk A/S and Hims & Hers Health Inc. will work together to sell obesity drugs, a sudden reversal after more than eight months of acrimony that culminated in a legal battle. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro was little changed at $1.1614 The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3428 The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.87 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $68,964.07 Ether rose 3.8% to $2,032.77 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.10% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.86% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.65% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.3% to $87.86 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.5% to $5,144.44 an ounce –With assistance from Lu Wang.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
