ILO: Middle East crisis could cost 14 million jobs

The crisis in the Middle East could cost 14 million jobs Keystone-SDA

The crisis in the Middle East could cost 14 million full-time equivalent jobs this year if the price of a barrel of oil exceeds the average for the start of the year by 50%. The figure would rise to 38 million by 2027, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO) in Geneva.

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In a report published on Monday, the ILO added that the number of hours worked could fall by 0.5% this year and 1.1% next year. Real labour income is expected to fall by 1.1% and 3%, or $1.1 trillion (CHF860 billion) and $3 trillion respectively.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points this year and 0.5 percentage points next year, the organisation adds. The Arab countries and Asia/Pacific are likely to be the most affected because of their links with the Gulf States.

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The former could even see a 10.2% fall in hours worked in the event of a serious deterioration. This is more than double the rate at the time of the Covid pandemic. “It’s a slow and potentially long shock,” said the ILO’s chief economist, Sangheon Lee.

Adapted from French by AI/ts

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