Wall Street Gains on Optimism US Will Soon Reopen: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bets that the largest shutdown in US history is soon coming to an end drove a rebound in stocks, spurring optimism that access to official economic data will shed light on the Federal Reserve outlook.

The S&P 500 erased losses, with about 365 shares gaining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%. FedEx Corp. — a barometer of the economy — jumped 6% as it expects profit this quarter to improve from a year ago. Nvidia Corp. sank 2.5% as SoftBank Group Corp. sold its entire stake in the chipmaker for $5.83 billion to help bankroll artificial-intelligence investments.

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With the bond market closed for Veterans Day, Treasury futures rose while the dollar fell as ADP Research data suggested the labor market slowed in the second half of last month. Traders have relied on private numbers as the government closure has delayed the release of official statistics.

A record-setting US shutdown is on a path to end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding measure. Reopening the government now depends on the House, which plans to return to Washington to consider the spending package. It would keep most of the government open through Jan. 30 and some agencies through Sept. 30.

If approved, the bill goes to President Donald Trump, who has already endorsed the legislation.

Back in 2013, which was the last shutdown to affect the jobs report, the government reopened on October 17, and the September jobs report was released five days later, noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.

“So based on that timeline, we could get the September jobs report pretty quickly, not least because the original release was meant to be on Oct. 3, just a couple of days after the shutdown began,” he said. “Early next week is realistic.”

The S&P 500 hovered near 6,850. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. trimmed losses after predicting accelerating sales growth over the next five years. CoreWeave Inc. tumbled 15% as the firm lowered its outlook amid a capacity crunch.

Bitcoin is struggling to stage a meaningful recovery after last month’s stumble, with signs of fatigue continuing to mount across crypto markets.

One month after the prior 15 shutdowns ended, the S&P 500 advanced 2.3% on average, according to data crunched by Sam Stovall at CFRA. A gain of that magnitude would leave the benchmark for American equities around 7,000 by mid-December.

The resumption of economic data releases could make the case for increased wagers on Fed rate cuts. The bottom line is that traders are determined to have their year-end rally and it will take far more serious setbacks than those we’ve seen to turn them bearish.

“We are buyers of this dip and maintain our tactical bullish call,” says the JPMorgan Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler. “The biggest near-term catalyst would be a reopening of the government which would buttress current-quarter GDP forecasts but also may release more liquidity into the market, which typically is supportive of stocks.”

Meantime, company executives are sounding remarkably upbeat about the economy this earnings season.

Mentions of “economic slowdown” and synonyms during sales, guidance and earnings calls tracked by Bloomberg are the lowest since 2007. That’s despite the disruption to official US data caused by the government shutdown. And this is playing out as the S&P 500 heads for a third year of high returns, with stocks as expensive as they were at their post-pandemic peak.

“Overall, the trend remains positive,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates. “New highs by year-end are definitely on the table, especially if the Fed cuts in December and takes a more dovish stance.”

“The Federal Reserve’s policy easing, robust corporate profits, and strong AI spending have been the key market drivers, in our view, and they should continue to support the equity rally,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Results from megacaps showed that the world’s biggest corporations are still pouring billions into AI infrastructure, cheering investors and bolstering the case for betting on the technology.

Still, investors are also beginning to scrutinize the huge sums companies like OpenAI, Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are spending on AI, leading to heavy volatility in what had been some of the year’s biggest momentum plays.

Wall Street veteran Charles Clough said today’s tech behemoths have strong business models that churn out substantial earnings, inoculating them from any economic downturns. Bigger picture, he said, market liquidity is more robust, which can allow further share price gains.

“People are asking the wrong questions about bubbles,” said the founder of Clough Capital Partners LP. “They think they’re going to repeat the same experience but the world isn’t like before, and especially the capital markets aren’t like that anymore.”

“Much energy has been spent debating whether hyperscalers’ profit margins are unsustainable,” said Naomi Fink at Amova Asset Management. “The typical response: even if they are, trying to time a correction of any inefficiencies is too costly and thus not worth attempting. After all, even professional investors struggle to call an end to market mispricing.”

At the same time, it is also possible that we are asking the wrong question, Fink added. Perhaps the sustainability of profit margins is overemphasized, while the role of low cost of equity is underappreciated, she noted.

“We continue to have a positive outlook for AI and, more broadly, believe we are still closer to the beginning than the end of a robust capex cycle/super-cycle that includes AI and other technology innovations,” said Doug Beath at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Beath said he’s also mindful about not overpaying for the sector and recommends diversifying exposure by adding utilities and industrials for the ancillary data center trend, but with lower valuations.

At Bank of America Corp., the strategists noted that the market has been so focused on owning companies benefitting from AI investment – from semiconductors to power plants to hyperscalers to certain capital goods names – that the conversation may be missing other opportunities.

While earnings from big tech provided a lot to like for the AI trade, investors are looking forward to hear from the industry’s biggest bellwether — Nvidia. That will be the next key event for markets once the smoke clears on the US shutdown front.

The maker of graphics processing units used in AI computing is scheduled to report on Nov. 19 and expectations are high — especially after Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang gave a strong outlook for growth at a recent event.

“Tech stocks are going to continue to determine the direction of the stock market going forward whether investors like it or not,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.

Mark Newton says he’s bullish on the prospects for Nvidia to regain all-time high territory, but unsure if this happens in a straight line. Meantime, he noted that the broader level of market breadth remains an issue.

“Thus, while I believe that last week’s lows very well could be the low for equities for November, I’m having a tough time expecting some immediate further follow-through right away,” said Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

While Newton is constructive on stocks, he senses that some “backing and filling” could happen this week before the start of a larger move higher.

“There is a lot of room for improvement on the breadth side if you’re a bull, given the generally healthy profit trends across industries,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “And if you’re a bear, this type of data demonstrates that without the AI and size trade in full display in 2025, the overall investment narrative may have looked quite a bit different.”

Corporate Highlights:

SoftBank Group Corp. sold its entire stake in Nvidia Corp. for $5.83 billion to help bankroll AI investments, even as investors question the amount of capital pouring into a technology with uncertain returns. CoreWeave Inc. tumbled after lowering its annual revenue forecast due to a delay in fulfilling a customer contract, a setback in its race to keep up with the artificial intelligence boom. Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Nvidia’s nearest rival in AI chips, predicted accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products. Microsoft Corp. will spend $10 billion on an artificial intelligence data center along the Portuguese coast, marking one of its largest European investments this year, the company said. Alphabet Inc.’s Google is adding new artificial intelligence features to its Pixel devices, including iPhone-like message summaries and notification prioritization. The firm also said it plans to invest €5.5 billion ($6.4 billion) into computing resources and operations in Germany over the next four years, joining a wave of spending pledges from technology companies in recent months. Meta Platforms Inc.’s messaging service WhatsApp will face stricter rules under the European Union’s content moderation rulebook, as the bloc increases scrutiny of social media. FedEx Corp. expects profit this quarter to improve from a year ago, easing investor concerns about a lackluster holiday season and volatile trade policies. Paramount Skydance Corp. jumped after the newly merged company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures. KKR & Co. publicly distanced its insurer Global Atlantic from Egan-Jones Ratings Co., a firm the US Securities and Exchange Commission is scrutinizing for its rating practices in the private credit industry. First Brands Group founder Patrick James ordered members of the finance department to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars of corporate cash to his personal bank account, a family trust and various businesses he controlled, the company’s new chief executive said during testimony in federal court Monday. Gemini Space Station Inc., the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public. Parker-Hannifin Corp. agreed to buy Filtration Group from Madison Industries for $9.25 billion, building out the manufacturer’s industrial filtration business. Nebius Group NV third-quarter sales soared by more than 300% as the Dutch neocloud provider announced an artificial intelligence infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms Inc. and predicted rapid growth through 2026. LVMH is set to open major stores in China in December and is considering further expansion there, according to people familiar with the matter, as high-end brands see early signs of a sales rebound in the world’s second-largest economy. Swedish landlord SBB agreed to sell its portfolio of elderly and health care homes to a Norwegian group for about $3.4 billion, allowing the heavily-indebted landlord to slash its debt pile. ArcelorMittal SA’s exclusive talks with South Africa’s biggest development-finance institution regarding the potential sale of its local steel operation have ended without a deal, leaving the company free to seek other investors. Teck Resources Ltd. held on-and-off talks about a combination with Vale SA’s base metals unit before agreeing to merge with Anglo American Plc, according to people familiar with the matter. Sony Group Corp. raised its profit outlook after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings, buoyed by its entertainment portfolio and resurgent demand for its premium smartphone camera sensors. What Bloomberg Strategists say…

“Nvidia’s earnings, slated for release next Wednesday, remain a key event risk for the market, regardless of when the US government goes back to work and finally starts releasing its own data again.” -Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 3 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% The MSCI World Index rose 0.5% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.1% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1584 The British pound was little changed at $1.3167 The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.11 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $103,206.51 Ether fell 2.3% to $3,458.58 Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.66% Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.39% US 10yr Note (CBT)Dec25 advanced 33 basis points to 113.02% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $61.03 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,123.79 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.