The economy will “underperform” this year and next, largely due to inflation issues and geopolitical troubles, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reckons.
OECD experts said on Wednesday they predicted growth of 0.6% in Swiss GDP in 2023, and 1.2% in 2024 – a significant slowdown from the post-pandemic boom, when the economy grew by 4.2% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022.
It also means the Swiss economy will remain “below its potential” until the second quarter of 2024. The causes: tighter monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical tensions – including concerns around gas supplies next winter.
However, following the collapse of Credit Suisse in March, and its subsequent takeover by UBS – a deal set to be finalised next week – the OECD reckons that fears around the Swiss banking sector should “remain under control”.
It also predicts continued growths in exports both this year (+4.2%) and next (+3.1%).
As for inflation, which slowed in May to its lowest rate since the Ukraine war started, the OECD does not however expect it to fall below the 2% mark – in line with the objective of the Swiss National Bank – before next year. Prices are set to rise 2.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, it forecasts.
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