Stocks Rise and Oil Falls on US-Iran Deal Hopes: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Hopes for a diplomatic way out of the war in Iran spurred a bounce in stocks and bonds as oil dropped on speculation that a deal would revive energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The S&P 500 erased losses. US crude hovered near $98. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted there were “some good signs” of an agreement with Iran, according to the Financial Times. He expects Pakistani mediators to travel to Iran as Tehran reviews the latest Washington proposal, the news report said.
Traders have been on high alert for clues on the status of talks that could lead to a Hormuz reopening. Traffic through the waterway has shriveled since the conflict erupted, causing energy prices to soar while rattling economies, companies and markets.
Iran is discussing with Oman how to set up some form of a permanent toll system that will formalize its control of maritime traffic through the energy chokepoint. President Donald Trump said the US wants the strait to be open and free of tolls.
“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” he told reporters. “Right now, we’re negotiating and we’ll see.”
Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the US, which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, according to Reuters. Later, Al Jazeera said no new uranium directive has been issued.
The US will likely destroy Iran’s enriched uranium if and after it gets it, Trump told reporters at the White House.
“While geopolitical risks could still flare up, the more pressing issue appears to be macro-related,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Elevated energy prices continue to fuel concerns about longer-term inflation. Markets will have plenty to digest in the coming weeks and months.”
The inflation worry and prospects of consequential rate hikes have unsettled investors. The danger that comes with higher borrowing costs is that expansion in some economies could grind to a halt. While US manufacturing activity expanded by the most in four years, that was seen by many as only a temporary boost as customers strived to get ahead of mounting price pressures.
Jamie Dimon said interest rates may climb much further, a warning to bond investors at a time when yields have touched multi-year highs.
“They could be much higher than they are today,” the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. told Bloomberg Television. “We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings.”
In the latest sign of how the war is impacting companies, Walmart Inc. warned rising fuel costs are squeezing its bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers. With so much uncertainty on the geopolitical front, not even a solid outlook from Nvidia Corp. was able to buoy sentiment.
Corporate Highlights:
The Trump administration has agreed to award $1 billion to International Business Machines Corp. to build a foundry for producing quantum-computing chips, part of a broad strategy to bolster US leadership in an emerging industry. Anthropic PBC is in talks to rent Microsoft Corp. AI server chips, the Information reported, as the startup seeks to boost computing power and meet demand for its services. Ralph Lauren Corp. reported revenue and profit that beat analyst expectations, demonstrating the high-end apparel company’s momentum with consumers in the face of ongoing tariff uncertainty. Deere & Co.’s farm machinery sales stayed sluggish, raising questions on when the agriculture economy will start getting better. Nearly half of patients who got a high dose of Eli Lilly & Co.’s next-generation obesity shot lost the equivalent weight of bariatric surgery, further evidence that the treatment could be the company’s most potent weight-loss medicine yet. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The SPX sensitivity to oil is back to where it was a month ago, or even in early April during the early stages of the stock-market recovery.”
—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 1:40 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% Nvidia fell 0.9% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1620 The British pound was little changed at $1.3437 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.94 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $77,892.85 Ether rose 0.5% to $2,145.36 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.56% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.10% Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.97% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $98.08 a barrel Spot gold was little changed ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
