Oil, Dollar Climb With US-Iran Deal Still Elusive: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Oil climbed and the dollar strengthened as negotiations to extend the US-Iran ceasefire showed few signs of a breakthrough.
Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, rebounding from its lowest close since mid-April as tensions in the Middle East remained elevated and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz showed little progress. The dollar, the haven of choice since the US-Israel war on Iran started, was slightly stronger against all its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury yields edged up across the curve.
Asian shares rose 0.3%, hovering near a record high, with South Korea — a bellwether for artificial intelligence-related investments — jumping 2.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4% after Wall Street benchmarks closed at records on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a deal and continued enthusiasm for the AI trade.
During the weekend, an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base caused minor injuries to several Americans, while Israel stepped up its offensive against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged messages seeking amendments to a draft agreement that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remained unclear whether talks were making much progress.
The renewed tensions challenge a global stock rally fueled by relentless enthusiasm for the AI trade, which has helped propel South Korea’s market to the top of global performance rankings this year. Meanwhile, oil’s rebound on Monday after its steepest monthly drop in more than six years is testing whether the recent recovery in global bond markets can endure as investors reassess the risk of energy-driven inflation.
“Negotiations between the US and Iran remain an outstanding concern and a source of potential volatility going forward,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “The risk is the price has been misled by propaganda as the Trump administration sells a looming deal but, to this point, the Iranians remain reticent on the matter.”
In other corners of the market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbed three basis points to 4.46%. Yields on government bonds of similar maturity in Australia and Japan also climbed. Futures of similar-tenor debt in France and Germany declined.
Gold fluctuated to trade around $4,540 an ounce, while Bitcoin led cryptocurrencies higher.
Chinese assets will be in focus in early trading after the official gauge of factory activity slowed in May, adding to signs the world’s second biggest economy is faltering from pressures on global demand and input costs from the Iran war.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump posted on social media he was ready to make a “final determination” on a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire. Hours later, he left the Situation Room meeting without any decision being made, the New York Times reported.
Amendments to the deal continue to be proposed by both sides, though both the US and Iran might ultimately reject the changes and the deal would collapse, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Sunday.
“There are likely going to be more setbacks, but the market has already priced an agreement in Iran,” Patrik Lang, chief investment strategist at Geneva-based Global Gate Asset Management. “I wouldn’t expect big market moves, except maybe lower oil, once the deal is announced.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 9:44 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures rose 0.4% Japan’s Topix was little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1647 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 159.44 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7639 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7181 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $73,846.01 Ether rose 0.4% to $2,013.49 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.46% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.680% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.87% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $89.69 a barrel Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
