Stocks Fall, Oil Jumps on Doubts Over Peace Deal: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — A rally in oil drove stocks lower as a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on prospects for peace talks between the US and Iran before their fragile ceasefire deal expires.
Equities fell from record highs, with the S&P 500 halting a five-day advance amid losses in several tech giants. President Donald Trump said it’s unlikely he would extend a truce with Tehran if an agreement isn’t reached before it ends, adding the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked until an accord is finalized. Brent settled above $95. Treasuries and the dollar wavered.
“I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal,” Trump said. In a phone interview, he added the truce expires “Wednesday evening Washington time.” The US president noted a delegation was on its way to Pakistan even as Iran held back from saying whether it would take part in further talks.
Transits through Hormuz have reduced to a trickle as Iran tightens control in retaliation for strikes. On Friday, that paralysis appeared to be at an end, with Tehran saying it would reopen the waterway, before reversing course as the US maintained a naval blockade and attacked an Iranian ship.
“Well, that didn’t last long, did it? The much-talked-about ‘reopening’ of the Strait of Hormuz barely made it through a day before Friday’s tensions came straight back into play,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Still, there’s a sense that both sides might be posturing — talking tough with the deadline looming to strengthen their negotiating hands.”
Oil prices could rise to $110 per barrel if traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for another month, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts.
They predict a preliminary agreement between Iran and the US will be signed or the ceasefire will be extended, and that could turn into a more comprehensive deal. “That said, we remain prepared to pivot toward a more protracted disruption scenario should negotiations falter,” the analysts wrote.
While investors will keep their eyes on the situation in the Middle East, a relevant catalyst could come from Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
“I believe that monetary policy independence is earned — and better policy decisions crafted — by steering clear of distractions,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks viewed by Bloomberg. “I am committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent.”
This week’s marquee economic report is also due Tuesday. Analysts project a jump in overall retail sales for March. Excluding gasoline and autos, the data could signal more tepid demand as high fuel costs prompted budget-constrained consumers to squeeze spending on other things.
Corporate Highlights:
Companies involved in psychedelic-tied therapies rallied after President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite research and access. Marvell Technology Inc. climbed after the Information reported that Google is in discussions with the semiconductor company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. AST SpaceMobile Inc. sank after Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place a payload it was carrying for the Texas-based satellite networking company into its intended orbit. Caesars Entertainment Inc. has extended the period of exclusive talks about an $18 billion takeover by Tilman Fertitta as new details about the deal emerge. Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. has floated offering the US government an equity stake in the discount carrier to help stave off its potential liquidation, according to people familiar with the matter. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“If the peace narrative proves fragile this week — and we’ve already seen threats of destabilization — the same high-beta segments that led on the way up could unwind just as quickly.”
—Brendan Fagan, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed The MSCI World Index fell 0.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1785 The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3532 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 158.85 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $76,264.85 Ether rose 2.3% to $2,332.76 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.98% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.83% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.6% to $88.58 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,815.10 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
