Stocks Rise, Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Deal: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Hopes for a diplomatic way out of the war in Iran lifted stocks and bonds as oil dropped on speculation that a deal would pave the way for a revival of energy flows through the key Strait of Hormuz.

In a volatile session, the S&P 500 extended this week’s advance. A drop in US crude drove Treasury yields lower. Iran said a proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, even as comments from the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader about keeping the uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted “some good signs” that a deal could be reached, according to the Financial Times. He expects Pakistani mediators to travel to Tehran, the news report said. Meantime, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the nation “will never back down.”

Traders have been on high alert for clues on the status of talks that could lead to a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Traffic through the waterway has shriveled since the conflict erupted, causing energy prices to soar while rattling economies, companies and markets.

Iran is discussing with Oman how to set up some form of a permanent toll system that will formalize its control of maritime traffic through the energy chokepoint. President Donald Trump said the US wants the strait to be open and free of tolls.

Concerns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could worsen energy disruptions and fuel inflation have unsettled investors, spurring speculation that central banks would be forced to raise interest rates. The danger that comes with higher borrowing costs is that expansion in some economies could grind to a halt.

While US manufacturing activity expanded by the most in four years, that was seen by many as only a temporary boost as customers strived to get ahead of mounting price pressures. In the latest sign of how the war is impacting companies, Walmart Inc. warned rising fuel costs are squeezing its bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers.

Jamie Dimon said interest rates may climb much further, a warning to bond investors at a time when yields have touched multi-year highs.

“They could be much higher than they are today,” the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. told Bloomberg Television. “We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings.”

Corporate Highlights:

The Trump administration has agreed to award $1 billion to International Business Machines Corp. to build a foundry for producing quantum-computing chips, part of a broad strategy to bolster US leadership in an emerging industry. Anthropic PBC is in talks to rent Microsoft Corp. AI server chips, the Information reported, as the startup seeks to boost computing power and meet demand for its services. Ralph Lauren Corp. reported revenue and profit that beat analyst expectations, demonstrating the high-end apparel company’s momentum with consumers in the face of ongoing tariff uncertainty. Deere & Co.’s farm machinery sales stayed sluggish, raising questions on when the agriculture economy will start getting better. Nearly half of patients who got a high dose of Eli Lilly & Co.’s next-generation obesity shot lost the equivalent weight of bariatric surgery, further evidence that the treatment could be the company’s most potent weight-loss medicine yet. What Bloomberg Strategists say…

“The SPX sensitivity to oil is back to where it was a month ago, or even in early April during the early stages of the stock-market recovery.”

—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1622 The British pound was little changed at $1.3437 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.89 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at $77,642.04 Ether rose 0.3% to $2,140.73 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.55% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.10% Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.97% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $97.27 a barrel Spot gold was little changed ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.