Swiss Firms May See $2 Billion in US Tariff Refunds, UBS Says

(Bloomberg) — Swiss companies could receive as much as $2 billion in US tariff reimbursements, according to economists at UBS.

The biggest potential refunds for goods exported between April 2025 and February 2026 relate to precision and medical instruments as well as watches, UBS said on Thursday. The remainder is primarily for coffee, machinery and electrical equipment.

The reimbursements are due after the tariff regime initially imposed by President Donald Trump was struck down by the Supreme Court. UBS cautioned that exporters may not receive the full benefit because refunds formally accrue to importers.

Looking ahead, the bank expects that headline US tariffs on Switzerland will eventually rise to 15% from the current 12.5%, in line with the framework trade deal both countries agreed in November. Economist Meret Muegeli highlighted that effective levies are well below that level — currently around 6% — because pharmaceuticals, Switzerland’s biggest export, are largely exempt.

US tariffs have been a drag for Swiss companies, especially for the country’s watchmakers including Swatch or private equity owned Breitling. Both firms are examples for companies which started looking into refunds for the custom duties they had paid for.

UBS analysts also said Switzerland’s outsized 1.5% growth in the second quarter probably overstates the economy’s underlying strength, though it still points to an improvement.

“That seems somewhat exaggerated and not fully reflecting reality,” said Alessandro Bee. “But we are seeing signs of a recovery.”

For 2027, UBS expects unemployment to decline and inflation to remain below 1%. The bank sees the Swiss National Bank to deliver its first interest-rate increase around the middle of the year, though there’s a risk that policymakers start raising borrowing costs earlier. Officials meet for their third rate decision of the year later this month.

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