Swiss Inflation Jumps to Fastest in a Year on War Impact
(Bloomberg) — Switzerland’s inflation rate jumped in March to the quickest pace in a year as the energy supply crunch caused by the war in the Middle East stoked the cost of heating oil.
Consumer prices rose 0.3% from a year earlier, up from 0.1% in each of the previous three months. That was less than the 0.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Most forecasters had expected a higher outcome.
Rising costs for heating oil were the biggest contributor to the surge, Switzerland’s statistics office said on Thursday. Due to local regulation, possible higher bills for electricity and gas will hit consumers with a delay. A measure for underlying inflation — which strips out items such as energy — held at 0.4%.
The Swiss franc extended earlier losses to drop 0.2% at 0.9222 per euro.
The inflation reading may quell for now any lingering speculation about the Swiss National Bank returning to negative interest rates soon. That option re-emerged in recent weeks as a response to stem haven flows into the franc, which had driven the currency to an 11-year high against the euro.
The March inflation data suggest that the strong exchange rate’s effect of weighing on import costs and inflation is being offset by higher energy prices, offering some breathing space to the SNB.
The currency dropped recently, possibly helped by policymakers’ statements that their readiness to step into markets to guard against excessive strength had increased.
If the acceleration in inflation continues, it could ultimately even bring rate hikes into focus in due course. Such moves are already priced in by investors, even though most economists dismiss the prospect for this year and next.
Officials have kept their rate at zero since June. Even with the jump in March, Swiss inflation remains in line with the central bank’s most recent forecast for the quarter. For all of 2026, the SNB expects it to average 0.5%.
The conflict in the Middle East is being increasingly being felt in Europe. In March, the euro area saw its steepest jump in consumer-price growth since 2022, with inflation reaching 2.5%. Based on the European Union’s harmonized measure, the Swiss rate was 0.6%.
–With assistance from Vassilis Karamanis.
(Updates with franc in fourth paragraph)
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
