Swiss vote eases pressure, but EU agreements remain uncertain

The future of relations between Bern and Brussels is still far from certain, despite the public’s rejection on June 14 of a cap on Switzerland’s population. A rejection of the new package of bilateral agreements by the Swiss people remains entirely possible, warn the guests on our Let’s Talk podcast.

“The rejection of the ‘No to ten million!’ initiative has helped to preserve the cornerstone of the agreements between Switzerland and the European Union,” says Cédric Dupont, professor of international relations at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID), on Let’s Talk.

Dupont is referring to the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, which would have been called into question had voters people accepted the proposal put forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party. The initiative, which was rejected in a public ballot on June 14, wanted to cap the population at ten million by limiting immigration drastically. For Dupont, its acceptance would have undermined the principle of free movement and prevented any further deepening of relations with the European Union (EU).

For him, the key question is now the voting procedure: will the Bilateral Agreements III require a double majority of both voters and the cantons, or just a simple majority of voters? “If we analyse the results of the June 14 vote, the double majority of the people and the cantons will be difficult to achieve,” he says. Parliament is expected to decide on this crucial issue during its autumn session.

>> After a period in which some stability had been observed, are Bern and Brussels heading for another stand-off?

Relief in Brussels

“Within the European institutions, the vote on the initiative was followed closely, but quietly,” notes Aleksandra Planinic, Brussels correspondent for the French-language Swiss public broadcaster RTS. According to her, the European Commission chose not to comment publicly before the vote to prevent its statements from being exploited in the Swiss debate. “Behind the scenes, however, there was a great deal of concern. There were fears that a ‘yes’ vote would send a negative signal regarding the package of agreements with Switzerland,” she explains.

>> For the EU, Switzerland is not a priority, Planinic explains:

The rejection of the initiative was met with relief in Brussels. Planinic notes, however, that the 45% vote in favour of the initiative did not go unnoticed among European officials. In her view, this result shows that scepticism towards the EU remains significant in Switzerland. “The ‘no’ vote on the ‘No to ten million!’ initiative has not settled the European question. The worst has undoubtedly been averted, but the real test will be the forthcoming vote on the new package of agreements,” she says.

Before the referendum, it will be parliament’s turn to decide on the issue, starting this autumn. Dupont identifies two major stumbling blocks. The Swiss People’s Party is firmly opposed to the updates. “It condemns Switzerland’s subjugation and fears that the country will lose its ability to decide its own future,” he says. The trade unions and the left, for their part, are focusing on wage protection and are demanding guarantees against any wage undercutting.

‘Switzerland sometimes behaves like a spoilt child’

In Brussels, people have learnt to put up with Swiss hesitations, according to Planinic. Yet while “the EU still has a little patience left, it is not infinite,” she warns. The journalist sometimes observes a certain irritation within the European institutions. “Switzerland sometimes behaves like a spoilt child. It enjoys a privileged relationship with the EU even though it is not a member, yet it would sometimes like to be treated as if it were,” she says.

Dupont shares this view. In his opinion, Switzerland has secured concessions in the Bilateral Agreements III that he would never have imagined it could achieve. “On certain points, these agreements would even give it a more favourable position than that of the countries in the European Economic Area (EEA), without it having to pay the political price,” he says.

Despite the concessions secured, enthusiasm is not running high in the Swiss government. It has already announced that it will not campaign in favour of the package of agreements, but will simply present the arguments from both sides. Dupont is not a fan of this stance: “The government has secured some very good agreements, has ratified them, and should be proud of them and defend them.” The professor fears that, without a campaign by ministers, the agreements may not be accepted.

Swiss-EU ties face slow erosion

If the public ultimately rejects the latest package of bilateral deals, Dupont predicts a slow erosion of relations between Switzerland and the EU. “There is no real status quo possible. In this matter, inaction means gradual decline,” he explains. He points out that 24 years will have elapsed between the conclusion of second bilateral deal package in 2004 and the vote on the new agreements in 2028. “If you don’t maintain a property for a quarter of a century, the roof starts to leak. It’s the same with the agreements,” he says.

>> Is there a Plan B for the package of agreements between Switzerland and the EU?

Planinic agrees. “If the result is a ‘no’, the bilateral agreements will no longer be updated, and this will lead to a silent erosion of everything that has been built up so far.” She fears Switzerland will become increasingly marginalised, with its access to research programmes such as the EU’s Horizon Europe or student exchange programmes such as Erasmus being called into question.

Swiss abroad could pay the price

The some 500,000 Swiss nationals living in EU countries would bear the direct brunt of any failure to stabilise relations between Bern and Brussels. Speaking to Swissinfo, Daniel Hunziker, director of the Organisation of the Swiss Abroad, believes that such a scenario would plunge Swiss citizens living in the EU into uncertainty, as well as those considering settling or investing there. “A deterioration in relations could jeopardise their access to the labour market as well as their opportunities for mobility,” he says.

Planinic points out that the Swiss Abroad rejected the ‘No to ten million!’ initiative even more decisively than voters in Switzerland. “This is a strong political signal, demonstrating their commitment to the free movement of people. For Swiss citizens abroad, relations between Switzerland and the EU are not an abstract issue: they have a direct impact on their daily lives,” she says.

Edited by Samuel Jaberg/adapted from French by Patrick Huwyler/ds