Voters rejected population cap initiative over foreign policy fears: survey

A cap on the number of inhabitants in Switzerland would have been a first worldwide. Keystone-SDA

The “No to ten million” immigration initiative failed at the ballot box in June due to fears among voters over the potential foreign policy consequences, a new analysis by institute gfs.bern shows.

According to survey results published on Thursday, the majority of those opposed to the proposal put forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party perceived population growth as a strain on infrastructure. However, the decisive factor for voters who said “no” to the initiative was the potential economic and foreign policy consequences of introducing a cap on the number of inhabitants, a measure that would have been a first worldwide.

The initiative was rejected by a 54.8% majority.

Support for the proposal, on the other hand, was based mainly on considerations of migration policy and economic growth, said gfs.bern, which carried out the study. Voting behaviour was highly polarised, with the People’s Party electorate voting overwhelmingly (95%) in favour. Voters without party affiliation also backed the initiative, albeit by a narrow margin (51%).

As for the other subject on the ballot on June 14, the reform to to the Civilian Service Act, which was approved by 52.5% of the Swiss electorate, the key factor was the desire to ensure sufficient staffing levels for the armed forces. This argument was also echoed by those opposed to the measure.

Support came mainly from supporters of the People’s Party, the centre-right Radical-Liberals, and the Centre Party. Younger voters were more likely to reject the reform.

According to the analysis, the high turnout – close to 59% – was driven above all by people interested in politics, affiliated to a party, of a certain age, and with a high level of education and income: a recurring pattern. The “No to ten million” initiative was perceived as significant, so much so that, on the importance scale, it received an average score of 8.1 – the highest of all the proposals in the current legislative term.

A total of 3,305 voters were interviewed for the study. VOX analyses are carried out after every federal vote and aim to provide a better understanding of voters’ motivations. These surveys began in 1977 and, since 2020, have been conducted by gfs.bern on behalf of the Federal Chancellery.

Translated from Italian/reviewed by an English Department journalist

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