![The four-metre-long painting "Sonntag der Bergbauern" [Sunday of the Mountain Farmers, 1923-24/26] had to be removed by a crane from the German Chancellery in Berlin for the exhibition in Bern.](https://www.swissinfo.ch/content/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2025/12/01_Pressebild_KirchnerxKirchner.jpg?crop=1165px,0px,1670px,1670px&w=480&ver=f05a5a9c)
Switzerland Boosts Growth Outlook for Next Year After Trade Deal
(Bloomberg) — Switzerland lifted the growth outlook for next year on the back of its trade deal with the US, while lowering expectations on inflation after the central bank refrained from further easing.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs sees gross domestic product adjusted for large sports events expanding 1.1% in 2026, up from its September projection of 0.9%. That almost matches the growth seen before outsized American tariffs took effect. In its first estimate for the year after, the agency known as SECO penciled in 1.7%.
“Despite some easing of tensions, uncertainty remains high regarding international economic and trade policy and its macroeconomic impact,” SECO said in a statement on Monday, citing tariffs, financial and real estate markets, sovereign debt and geopolitics. “Should any of these risks materialize, further upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected.”
The authority, which is in charge of drawing up economic forecasts for the Swiss government, now expects consumer prices to rise by just 0.2% next year, down from 0.5% previously predicted, before accelerating to 0.5% in 2027.
The inflation outlook is even weaker than projections given by the Swiss National Bank after it decided to keep interest rates at zero on Thursday — the second meeting in a row to see officials hold off on changing policy. A rate cut would mean the reintroduction of negative borrowing costs, a move that policymakers have said faces a higher bar than a conventional reduction. Most analysts think rates won’t go any lower in this cycle.
The resolution of its tariff spat with the US is widely expected to return Switzerland to a path of stable growth, after the economy suffered its first quarterly contraction since 2023 in the July-September period. Donald Trump’s administration imposed a shock 39% levy on many Swiss exports in August, but both nations reached a preliminary trade agreement reducing surcharges to 15% in November.
–With assistance from Kristian Siedenburg.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
