Chocolate industry past worst of cocoa crisis, say Swiss experts

The crisis in the chocolate industry was triggered by a historic surge in the price of cocoa. Keystone-SDA

After two difficult years, there are growing signs of a recovery in the chocolate industry, say experts. Cocoa prices have fallen significantly from their record highs and there are signs of increased demand.

Analysts at the Swiss bank Vontobel say the sector is close to a possible turning point. “We believe that the low point in sales volumes is now behind us,” they wrote in a report on the Swiss chocolate industry published on Wednesday. But they add that the recovery is still at an early stage.

The latest data nonetheless suggests that the long-awaited improvement in demand for chocolate may be on the horizon.

The crisis was triggered by a historic surge in the price of cocoa. In 2024, the price of cocoa rose at times to more than £10,000 (CHF10,900) per tonne. Poor harvests in West Africa, plant diseases and ageing trees led to supply shortages. Speculation on the commodities markets further exacerbated the situation.

Prices up to 50% higher

Manufacturers such as Lindt & Sprüngli responded with massive price hikes. According to Vontobel, leading suppliers have raised the prices of their products by a cumulative 25-50% since 2024. This increasingly took its toll on demand, with consumers turning more frequently to cheaper own-brand products.

Figures from Chocosuisse illustrate just how hard the shock has hit the Swiss industry. In 2025, the volume of Swiss chocolate sold fell by 7.9%, and exports by as much as 9.3%. At the same time, turnover rose by 11.8% due to the higher prices. Per capita chocolate consumption also fell by 2.7%.

Signs of a recovery are now emerging. Although the price of cocoa, roughly £4,500, is still roughly twice the historical average, it is 60% below its peak. At the same time, global cocoa grindings rose in the second quarter of 2026 for the first time after six consecutive declines. This is regarded as an important leading indicator of demand for chocolate.

Barry is growing again

Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut also recently given signs of recovery. In the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, its sales volume rose by 5.7% – the first growth in volume in two years.

Luxury chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli is also hopeful of a return to growth in 2027. In the first half of 2026, organic revenue grew by 4.3%, though this increase was still driven primarily by price rises of 11.8%. Sales volumes consequently remained under pressure.

El Niño remains a risk

But Vontobel experts say the crisis is not over yet. The El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to be particularly strong this year and next, could significantly impact the cocoa harvest in West Africa. It may bring higher temperatures and less rain to the region, thereby increasing the risk of droughts.

Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon together account for around three-quarters of global cocoa production. Unlike with other agricultural commodities, shortfalls there can hardly be offset by other regions. Consequently, harvest problems can have a significant impact on prices. Vontobel therefore expects volatility to remain high.

Barry Callebaut recently said a repeat of the cocoa crisis of 2023 and 2024 is unlikely, despite El Niño. In July, Chief Financial Officer Peter Vanneste pointed to higher cocoa stocks and noted that the market was entering the new harvest season with a surplus, rather than following several years of shortages as had been the case previously.

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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist.