Chinese Copper Import Demand Sends Key Premium to Record High
(Bloomberg) — Leia em português
Chinese copper buyers rushing to secure supply in a tightening market have sent a key gauge of import demand shooting to a record high.
The Yangshan premium, which measures what Chinese importers pay above London Metal Exchange prices, spiked on Wednesday to more than $200 a ton and has remained near that level, the highest in Fastmarkets data going back to 2017.
The premium — named after a Shanghai port that’s a major hub for Chinese copper imports — has surged over the last couple of months, reflecting greater competition for the metal both inside and outside the country. The prospect of US import tariffs has seen massive volumes shipped to American shores, while, in China, inventories have thinned and output has eased.
China’s import premium has long been a closely watched gauge for the global copper market because of the nation’s role as the world’s biggest buyer. But uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans has arguably become the main driver for the metal this year.
Traders have shipped hundreds of thousands of tons to the US in anticipation of Trump expanding the levies to refined copper for the first time. While overall global inventories are not low in aggregate, the stockpiles are heavily concentrated in the US.
Demand in China remains steady despite LME prices near a record high, according to traders. More copper may start being exported from Africa, but that’s likely to take one to two months to arrive in the Asian nation.
Chinese inventories are below typical levels for this time of year, while copper smelters have pared production and threatened more cuts as they face higher costs. Chinese output of refined copper fell 1.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier.
“We are increasingly seeing a disconnect between (muted) price action and a tightening physical market, as reflected in a soaring Yangshan cathode premium,” analysts at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note Thursday.
Benchmark three-month copper futures were 1.1% lower at $14,318.50 a ton on the LME as of 4:35 p.m. local time. Meanwhile, the premium on spot prices over futures widened to $217 a ton, the highest level since mid-August, signaling mounting short-term supply stress.
–With assistance from Julian Luk, Jack Ryan and Jack Farchy.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
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