Fossil fuel shock revives clean power as security priority
Series Switzerland and fossil fuels,
Episode 7:
The Middle East conflict has made it clear that dependence on imported fossil fuels leaves nations vulnerable to shocks and shortages. This makes clean energy not just a climate necessity but a national security imperative, with implications for the energy transition.
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Fossil fuel shock revives clean power as security priority
More than eight weeks into the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, the impact on global energy markets is deepening. Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) callsExternal link the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally passes through the waterway, with most of it bound for Asia. As supplies tighten, fuel prices have surged.
The International Monetary Fund says the shock is hitting economies unevenly but warns that “all roads” lead to higher prices and weaker growth. Governments have responded with emergency measuresExternal link – capping prices, conserving energy and drawing on strategic stocks – while also speeding the transition to cheaper and more available renewable energy.
Why it matters for Switzerland
Switzerland is also vulnerable. The country covers around two‑thirds of its energy needs with imports, including all oil products, natural gas and nuclear fuel, used mainly for transport and heating. That dependency sends about CHF7 billion ($9 billion) abroad each year, saysExternal link the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES), which estimates Switzerland is somewhere in the middle of European countries in terms of energy independence.
“The Iran war clearly shows how vulnerable global energy supply is to geopolitical events,” said Léonore Hälg, head of renewables at SES. Expanding domestic renewable energy and strengthening cooperation within Europe, she said, are essential for Switzerland to secure supply and reduce reliance on authoritarian states.
Switzerland has pledged to phase out fossil fuels and continue the transition to renewable energy sources. At the latest United Nations Climate Conference (COP30), more than 80 countries, including Switzerland, called for a clear roadmap for turning away from fossil fuels.
At the same time, Switzerland remains heavily dependent on oil and gas imports, especially for transport and building heating. This series analyses Switzerland’s energy dependency and its somewhat ambiguous relationship with fossil fuels in the international context.
A global exposure problem
Analysis by the think tank EmberExternal link shows that roughly three‑quarters of the world’s population lives in fossil‑fuel‑importing countries, with 50 nations importing more than half of their primary energy. Major economies such as Germany, Italy and Spain rely on imports for over two‑thirds of their energy, while Japan and South Korea depend on imports for more than 80%.
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About 60% of the global population live in liquefied natural gas‑importing countries, with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea among the most exposed. However, oil remains the biggest vulnerability around the world. Ember estimates that 79% of the global population lives in oil‑importing countries. Net importers spent $1.7 trillion on fossil fuels in 2024, and every $10 increase in oil prices adds around $160 billion to the global import bill.
“Oil is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy. Asia’s oil vulnerability has been exposed by the current crisis,” said Daan Walter, Ember’s director.
Short-term alternatives and impacts on emissions
In the immediate term, the war may push CO₂ emissions higher. Several countries have turned back to coal to offset high gas prices. Thailand has restarted coal‑fired power plants, while Japan and South Korea have eased limits on burning coal. In Europe, Italy has delayed its coal phase‑out and Germany’s coal plants are temporarily producing more energy than gas‑fired stations.
Analysts stress that most countries are delaying retiring coal rather than building new plants – a pattern also seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The crisis has also revived debate over nuclear power as a way to reduce fossil fuel dependence. Taiwan is considering restarting its last reactor, while Japan continues discussions on bringing more plants back online. Several European countries, including Switzerland, are weighing higher nuclear investment, although new capacity would take years to deliver.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called the decline of nuclear power over the past two decades a strategic mistake and warned that reliance on “expensive and volatile” fossil fuel imports puts Europe at a structural disadvantage. Brussels has since proposed measures centred on electrification, coordinated oil and gas stockpiling, targeted state aid and short‑term relief to cut bills for households and industry.
Asia’s Ukraine moment
This is the second global energy crisis in four years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine galvanised Europe to cut dependence on Russian pipelines. Ember argues the Iran war could play a similar role for Asia.
“This is Asia’s Ukraine moment,” said Walter. Solar and wind power, batteries and electric vehicles are far cheaper and more widely available than they were in 2022, making a shift away from fossil fuels more affordable.
There are signs of momentum toward green energy. New data showsExternal link that all of last year’s growth in global electricity demand was met by renewables, while fossil‑fuel power generation declined for the first time since 2020. Record installations of solar and wind, combined with falling battery prices, are easing concerns about reliability and scale for renewables.
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High fuel prices are also shaping consumer behaviour. The Financial Times reportsExternal link rising interest in electric vehicles and domestic solar panels, while investors have been funnelling money into clean‑energy stocks, particularly in China, betting that the oil shock will accelerate demand.
Still, there are risks. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy price spikes fuelled inflation and forced central banks to raise interest rates, squeezing clean‑energy investment. A similar cycle could complicate the transition.
Crisis as catalyst?
Will the Iran war ultimately accelerate the global energy transition? Opinions diverge.
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at climate group 350.orgExternal link, argues the shift is already under way. “The latest data shows the transition is quietly accelerating, even amid crisis,” he told Swissinfo.
Others urge caution but see the current crisis as an opportunity. “Lasting progress in the energy transition depends on credible, long‑term policy frameworks rather than temporary price spikes,” said Massimo Filippini, professor of public and energy economics at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich and the Università della Svizzera Italiana. Households and firms tend to wait for markets to stabilise before investing in efficiency, electrification or renewables. Durable progress, he argues, requires predictable long‑term signals such as a global carbon tax, backed by complementary measures.
The conflict is nonetheless reshaping the debate. Many governments now see electrification and domestic renewables as national security priorities, not just climate tools, and volatile oil prices are pushing policymakers to lean more heavily on that argument.
The energy transition has so far been framed mainly as a climate responsibility – an essential but incomplete perspective, Filippini told Swissinfo. “It is also about security and resilience: more domestic and renewable energy means less exposure to geopolitical shocks, less vulnerability to fossil fuel price volatility, stronger, more resilient economies, and better air quality.” Clear long‑term signals, he added, could prompt households and companies to change behaviour.
Vance CulbertExternal link, a senior energy policy adviser at the Geneva‑based International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), also sees shifting priorities, despite short‑term setbacks such as a return to coal. Energy security and sovereignty are becoming central to policy choices, he told Swissinfo, forcing governments to favour cheaper options – often renewables – and rethink costly subsidies for imported fuels.
“It’s a global shift in perception,” Culbert argued, one that could ultimately reinforce the transition away from fossil fuels even if the path remains uneven.
Edited by Gabe Bullard/Veronica De Vore
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