How the Hormuz crisis is reshaping global trade

Blocked: a bulk carrier docked at the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, May 6, 2026. Reuters

Commercial shipping had only just begun returning to the Strait of Hormuz after a memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran in mid-June raised hopes of de-escalation. But those hopes have now evaporated with the return of direct military confrontation, reigniting fears about the world's most important energy chokepoint.

For governments and businesses, the question is no longer only when conditions in Hormuz will normalise. It is whether the crisis marks a lasting shift in how countries and companies think about energy security, shipping and global supply chains. That question remains top of mind for trading experts based in commodities hub Geneva and beyond.

Energy markets, however, have so far proved more resilient than many expected.

“We got it wrong,” Neil Atkinson, senior fellow at the Washington-based National Center for Energy Analytics and former head of the oil division at the International Energy Agency, told Swissinfo. “We fell too much into the trap of seeing this disaster… thinking, ‘Oh no, this is awful.’ But the system adapted.”

Alternative export routes, higher production outside the Gulf, strategic stock releases and lower demand combined to reduce what initially appeared to be a catastrophic supply shock. In March, Goldman Sachs had warned that a prolonged disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices as high as $200 (CHF161) a barrel in a worst-case scenario, but Brent crude ultimately peaked at about $126 per barrel on April 30 before retreating as supply disruptions proved less severe than feared.

In a presentation delivered at an industry event in June in Geneva, Atkinson showed how the threat to almost one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas liquids trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz had been cushioned by a series of “offsets” on both the supply and demand sides.

“The industry is the first responder,” he told Swissinfo in an interview following the Geneva gathering of comomodity traders organised by the London Stock Exchange Group, a global financial markets infrastructure and data provider. “The players in the market think, ‘How can we get around this interruption?’ So they find a way around it.”

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, increased the amount of oil it exported through its east-west pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates shipped more crude through Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, allowing barrels to bypass Hormuz altogether.

China, Japan, South Korea and India cut imports from the Gulf, partly by drawing on strategic reserves and curbing demand. At the same time, producers including the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela increased exports to fill part of the gap.

But Atkinson cautions against mistaking the market’s short-term resilience for long-term transformation. Invoking a famous anecdote about former Chinese premier Zhou Enlai – who was supposedly asked about the significance of the French Revolution and replied that it was “too early to say” – Atkinson argues the same applies to Hormuz.

“This war exploded at the end of February,” he said. “We’re still nowhere near the end of this trauma.”

Even so, some longer-term shifts are already coming into focus. Gulf exporters are likely to invest more heavily in alternative export infrastructure and overseas storage closer to Asian customers, while buyers are reconsidering how much they rely on any single supplier or route.

Japan and South Korea, for example, have replaced much of their Gulf crude during the crisis with imports from the US, Brazil and Norway. Even after supplies normalise, Atkinson doubts they will return to previous levels of dependence.

“They’ll be sitting down and thinking, ‘We don’t want to go back to 90% reliance on the Middle East Gulf,” he said. But greater diversification does not diminish the region’s central role in global energy markets.

“The underlying fundamental importance of the Middle East Gulf as a supply region – that does not change,” Atkinson said, noting that the UAE, now untethered from the OPEC quota system, has resumed production at pre-crisis levels and that demand for oil is expected to remain strong for decades, particularly in developing economies.

Nor does Atkinson believe the crisis will accelerate the energy transition. “The idea that suddenly, as a result of this war, we’re going to say ‘oh my god, no this is terrible, we can’t be using all these fossil fuels anymore, look at the risks to the global economy’… this is just not realistic,” he said.

What may change is how companies manage the risks of getting oil to market. Even if the Strait reopened fully tomorrow, Atkinson said, shipping would not immediately return to normal. Sea mines and Iran’s proposal to levy transit fees only add to the uncertainty.

“There has to be confidence,” Atkinson said. “Ship owners and crews, insurers – they have to believe that the ships are not going to be attacked. Since the memorandum of understanding, on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays it looks like as if peace is at hand. Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays conflict has broken out again. On Sunday, maybe they have a rest.”

Transit in Hormuz has been divided into separate corridors controlled by the US and Iran, which is unlikely to loosen its grip on the strait. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was “over” and that American forces would probably launch further strikes.

Illustration: Kai Reusser, Swissinfo

Vessels under attack 

Automatic Identification System (AIS) data illustrate how far the recovery still has to go.

Before the conflict, roughly 125 to 135 ships transited the Strait each day. During the worst of the fighting, daily crossings fell to single digits as many vessels avoided the waterway or switched off their transponders. UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded at least 16 attacks on shipping in the first two weeks of the conflict alone, and three more vessels were struck this week.

Geneva-based MSC, the world’s largest container shipping company, was among those forced to temporarily suspend transits through the Strait. One of its vessels came under gunfire while another was seized by Iranian forces. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

Rival CMA CGM, headquartered in France, has warned against expecting a rapid return to normality. “Even if a solution for peace is implemented in the coming weeks, there’s no guarantee there won’t be another crisis later and we can’t be prisoners to Hormuz,” chief executive Rudolphe Saadé told French lawmakers in JuneExternal link. “I won’t be fixated on the idea that the Strait of Hormuz is going to reopen and everything will return to how it was.”

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had raised hopes that shipping through the Strait could gradually return to normal. But attacks on commercial vessels this week, coupled with US strikes on Iranian targets, have prompted several ships to reverse course and renewed concerns that Hormuz will remain a flashpoint.

With around 80% of global merchandise traded by sea, disruptions to maritime transport quickly ripple through supply chains. Before the crisis, around one-fifth of the world’s oil, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas, petrochemicals and fertilisers that underpin manufacturing and agriculture, transited the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Strait of Hormuz is extremely important for the whole world and for global trade,” Luz María de la Mora, director of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s Division on International Trade and Commodities, told Swissinfo. But the costs of disruption, she noted, are not evenly distributed or absorbed.

UNCTAD identified 61 vulnerable countries simultaneously exposed to higher fuel prices and food import shocks. Most are net importers of both oil and cereals, leaving governments to absorb rising freight rates, insurance costs and energy bills. Nearly one billion people live in these economies, with more than 30% surviving on less than $3 a day.

“Higher energy prices, higher transportation prices, higher prices for imports – and especially food – have tremendous implications for the well-being of the population in these countries,” de la Mora said.

“Every day that we still live in this uncertain situation is creating higher costs, especially for small, vulnerable and developing economies.”

For de la Mora, the crisis reinforces a trend that began during the Covid-19 pandemic. Governments and companies are diversifying suppliers, transport routes and markets to build more resilient supply chains. But rebuilding supply chains takes both time and investment.

“It’s not from one day to another that you can switch from one supplier to another,” she said. “What we’re seeing in Hormuz is simply a reminder that supply chains today also need to take into account the need to be resilient and diversify.”

Edited by Virginie Mangin/dos

Graphics by Pauline Turuban and Kai Reusser