The surplus forecast for the 2018 financial year is CHF2 billion ($2.01 billion) more than earlier estimates thanks to growth in the economy.
On the basis of figures available at the end of June, the government forecasts an additional CHF1.3 billion in revenue thanks to more withholding taxes (CHF500 million), federal taxes (CHF500 million) and value added tax (CHF200 million). The increase in tax collection was attributed to economic growth. Swiss GDP is expected to grow by 3% instead of a projected growth of 2.8%.
The government remains cautious due to large uncertainties surrounding withholding tax collection. It could still be subject to significant variations, as claims are generally filed in the second half of the year.
Projected cost savings of CHF700 million will also contribute to the budget surplus. Most of the savings are due to a decrease in social assistance to asylum seekers (CHF79 million) due to fewer claims, as well as a drop in operating expenses for federal asylum centres (CHF54 million).