Stocks and Oil Whipsaw on Mixed US-Iran Signals: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a volatile session, with stocks and oil whipsawing as traders parsed mixed signals about prospects for a US-Iran deal to end the war and revive energy flows through the key Strait of Hormuz.
The S&P 500 almost erased its drop after President Donald Trump said he called off plans to attack Iran on Tuesday because “serious negotiations are now taking place” on reaching an agreement. A rally in oil eased after the settlement. While bond moves were subdued compared with the rout that swept markets Friday, global yields hovered near multi-year highs as still elevated energy prices stoked inflation worries.
Earlier Monday, both the US and Iran said they’d rejected fresh offers as insufficient to secure a deal. The White House said a proposal delivered by Tehran through mediators Sunday lacked meaningful improvement, Axios reported. Iran, meanwhile, indicated US demands are unacceptable.
Hopes for a breakthrough in the standoff over Hormuz had earlier fueled market optimism after Iranian media said Washington proposed a temporary waiver on sanctions. The report is false, according to a US official. The strait remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with traffic reduced to a trickle.
“The volatility will clearly continue until the Iran situation is resolved,” said veteran Wall Street strategist Louis Navellier. “If in a month from now, flows haven’t resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices will almost certainly be higher, fueling higher inflation and higher interest rates.”
Read: White House Reviews Ban on Trading Through Best Price on Stocks
The US on Monday issued a new waiver allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that are already loaded on tankers, days after the previous one lapsed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X that the new general license “will help stabilize the physical crude market.”
At Bank of America Corp., Francisco Blanch’s best-case oil-price scenario is Brent averaging $90 for the rest of the year, with the possibility that the market goes even higher if the stalemate with Iran persists or heats up. The issue, he said, is clear: Global supplies are too tight for prices to come down now. Brent settled around $112 Monday.
The equity market’s next “all clear” likely depends on calmer oil and bond markets, broader participation beyond a handful of megacaps as well as evidence that wage growth continues to outpace inflation, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Risks are growing of an unwind in the powerful fund flows that drove US stocks to record highs in recent weeks, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner.
“The near-term setup now warrants more tactical caution,” Rubner wrote. “Many of the flows that helped drive the rally now appear significantly more mature. Higher long-end rates are beginning to create competition for equities again.”
Corporate Highlights:
Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, speaking days after he joined President Donald Trump’s summit in China, said he expects Chinese authorities will eventually allow the import of artificial intelligence chips from the US. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI under Sam Altman’s leadership betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. The US Supreme Court turned away appeals from six pharmaceutical companies seeking to topple the Medicare drug price negotiation program that’s led to billions of dollars in discounts on top-selling treatments. NextEra Energy Inc.’s $67 billion deal for rival Dominion Energy Inc., the largest utility acquisition in US history, suggests even the industry’s biggest companies need to grow in order to accommodate the power demand driven by artificial intelligence. Publicis Groupe SA agreed to buy online data broker LiveRamp Holdings Inc. for about $2.5 billion in cash, a sign of the French media firm’s continued investment in marketing technology as the advertising industry contracts. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Stocks are proving more sensitive to rising bond volatility, which raises the risk of a deeper selloff.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1655 The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3434 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.85 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $76,885.77 Ether fell 3% to $2,123.08 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.59% Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.15% Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 5.10% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $106.33 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,559.29 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
