Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Truce Prospects Weighed: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds rose while oil fell as traders weighing the viability of US-Iran ceasefire talks sent markets to a series of swings.
The S&P 500 advanced for a second time this week as US efforts to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news that Iran rejected a truce proposal and maintained its military strikes. Brent dropped to around $101. Treasuries pared this month’s losses. Gold climbed.
President Donald Trump has pushed for negotiations in a bid to halt the conflict. The US has been in productive talks with Iran in the last three days, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Vice President JD Vance may travel to Pakistan for Iran talks this weekend, CNN reported.
Washington has compiled a plan stipulating the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only, according to people familiar with the matter. Iran would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief.
But Tehran kept signaling little willingness to compromise. A move by the US to start indirect talks is illogical and not viable at this stage, semi-official Fars news agency reported.
Iran has its own conditions for a ceasefire, state-owned Press TV added, citing an unnamed senior security official. Iran wants guarantees the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks as well as reparations for damages and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
“Markets are positioning for a conflict resolution, despite lingering strategic ambiguity,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Ultimately, Iran’s response to the US de-escalation pivot will decide whether peak fear is behind us or still ahead.”
“There’s really no way to know at this point what the facts are regarding the state of negotiations, so expect more whipsaw action as things continue to progress,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “While Iran still holds some cards, the chips are stacked heavily against them.”
Meantime, Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold their highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay that brought uncertainty to relations between the world’s largest economies.
Geopolitics is still in the driver’s seat, but the bigger story may be the stock market’s resilience, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“We haven’t seen a major drawdown, and that suggests retail investors are continuing to buy into weakness,” he said. “If tensions begin to ease, institutions may have to move quickly off the sidelines, and that could create a powerful rebound.”
It’s important for investors to not get overly bearish, especially during geopolitical events, which can change course at any time, according to Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“Markets may remain volatile for the next several weeks until earnings season begins in mid-April, as earnings season may help the markets refocus back to fundamentals, the economy and AI,” he said.
Optimism over earnings partly explains the S&P 500’s strength in the face of fighting in the Middle East. Analysts estimate companies in the gauge will grow their profits by 11.9% in the three months through March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
Corporate Highlights:
JetBlue Airways Corp. is considering the option of selling itself to a competitor, Semafor reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Meta Platforms Inc. is cutting several hundred jobs as part of a restructuring effort that’s impacting several teams at the company. Arm Holdings Plc said it will sell its own chips for the first time — a move forecast to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. Merck & Co. agreed to buy Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $6.7 billion, giving the company access to a promising new leukemia treatment as it faces the patent expiration of its bestselling cancer drug. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The conditions for a squeeze higher are in place: Sentiment is washed out, hedging remains heavy, systematic and long-short funds have already de-risked, and much of March’s negative technical pressure eased after last Friday’s options expiration.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 2 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1578 The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3384 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 159.26 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1% to $70,764.04 Ether rose 0.7% to $2,163.14 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.32% Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.96% Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.84% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $90.33 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.7% to $4,549.38 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
